Key Factor in Whether Lawrence Rebounds Is This Simple Number

Trevor Lawrence took 2.69 seconds, Baker Mayfield averaged 2.70. Both quarterbacks were nearly identical last season in how much time they took to pass the ball, according to Next Gen Stats.

But the production was massively different. Mayfield enjoyed the best year of his career but Lawrence struggled through the worst since his 2021 rookie campaign. The Jaguars’ mission seems clear.

Liam Coen, the play-caller for Mayfield in 2024 and Lawrence in 2025, has to close that gap, something that figures to factor into whether the Jaguars are either still playing in mid-January or making more organizational changes. And if Lawrence is going to play more like Mayfield, the Jacksonville quarterback needs to make better decisions in those 2.69 seconds.

“He has to think every single play,” Coen said at the conclusion of June minicamp. “There aren’t a ton of plays that he can just shut his brain off and go hand it off. So, that has been a huge kind of adjustment in some ways, but also growth where he’s shown the ability to go get us in the right plays, can go to the right call, and make the proper calls. I think that’s where you’ve seen the most growth.”

Another area of growth toward Mayfield’s standard is quick, surgical strikes. Last year, when Mayfield posted career highs in passing yards (4,500) and touchdown passes (41), he perfected a quick release. Mayfield took less than 2.5 seconds to pass on 82.3 percent of his attempts, according to Pro Football Focus. The Jaguars could have even more dangerous wide receivers, so if Lawrence can master a quick release with accuracy and timing, the sky could be the limit.

“While playing within the scheme can be conflated with a negative perception,” PFF’s Mason Cameron wrote last week, “that timing and rhythm in the passing game tends to produce excellent results with sound execution. 

“Baker Mayfield’s transition in Tampa Bay is a prime example, as his time to throw has decreased over the past two seasons compared to his previous three, resulting in increased production.”

Cameron said Mayfield’s 85.8 adjusted completion percentage and 29 touchdowns on passes in which he took less than 2.5 seconds to throw led the NFL in 2024. It also led the Buccaneers to an NFC South title and playoff berth.

An AFC title and playoff berth hinges largely on whether Lawrence can quickly adjust to his third offensive system in five NFL seasons, with an emphasis on quickly.

“Like I've said, changed some of my footwork, so I feel a lot more comfortable with that,” Lawrence said at the end of minicamp, discussing his growth during the offseason. “Just some subtle changes. I think footwork, my eyes, just where I'm starting, using my eyes as a weapon, manipulating the defense. I thought there was some great stuff on tape throughout the spring of me being able to do that in the ways I wanted to.

“Just overall being comfortable with the system, not thinking as much. When you hear a play call, it's not like I'm straining to think about what I'm doing. At first, when you get in the system, you're kind of doing that, but toward the end it felt a lot more second-nature and felt like I could just go and play and communicate and move fast.”

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