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King of Props: Chase the ace

By John Dudley | Last updated Jan 29, 2023 9:03 AM ET

This season’s final Sunday featuring multiple football games concludes with the Bengals and Chiefs playing an AFC Championship rematch. Having avoided a neutral-site game when the Bills were eliminated in the divisional round, Kansas City will be hosting the conference title showdown for a record fifth straight year. While there’s rampant speculation about how much Patrick Mahomes’ sprained ankle will affect him, we expect the other quarterback to connect with his favorite target enough to bring home our top AFC championship game prop:

The bet: Over 6½ receptions for Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (DraftKings)

The definition of a No. 1 receiver — and not just because he wears it on his jersey — Chase commands frequent looks from former LSU teammate Joe Burrow. Since Week 13, when he returned after missing four games with a hip injury, Chase has been thrown to on 28% of his pass routes.

Chase recorded just five receptions in last week’s 27-10 win over the Bills, but an overturned second touchdown catch cost him a sixth. Burrow also didn’t attempt a pass over the last 12 minutes because Cincinnati was nursing a big lead. In his nine previous games, Chase averaged 7.9 catches on 11.7 targets and always cleared this number.

The first time Chase faced the Chiefs, he set career highs with 11 receptions, 266 yards, and three TDs. This Kansas City defense ranks a middling 18th in passing yards allowed per game, but it has particularly struggled against opposing No. 1 receivers.

With a return trip to the Super Bowl on the line, Chase will once again be Burrow’s ace.

John Dudley

A longtime writer and sports bettor, John Dudley has been dubbed the “King of Props” for his proficiency with proposition wagers. Research is the key that routinely unlocks success, and his selections are always backed by sound reasoning. John can be followed on Twitter @JohnDudley85

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