King of Props: Grounded Jet

December football played outdoors in the north can be hazardous to a quarterback’s stats. When the conditions aren’t optimal, coaches tend to adopt a conservative offensive approach that features the running game. As the Jets prepare to host the Jaguars three days before Christmas, it appears that snow will be avoided, but the expected weather still factors into our decision for top prop:

The bet: Under 30½ passing attempts for Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (DraftKings)

Making his first start of the season in Week 4, Wilson threw 36 passes in a narrow win over the Steelers. But two of them resulted in interceptions, and coach Robert Saleh started showing less confidence in the former second overall pick, even benching him in favor of fifth-rounder Mike White.

Since his season debut, Wilson has started seven games and exceeded this total in just two of them. One came last week against the Lions, whose rush defense has been positively stifling over the last seven weeks, holding opposing running backs to less than three and a half yards per carry. Gaining yardage on the ground should prove much easier versus the suspect defensive unit of the Jaguars.

Tonight’s game will be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, where the forecast calls for a steady rain and winds gusting up to 25 miles per hour. Saleh figures to regularly deploy his running backs – Zonovan Knight, Michael Carter, and maybe even former Jaguar James Robinson – as a way to mitigate Wilson’s risk in tough conditions.