Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers have missed their chance

San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has been widely regarded as one of the NFL’s best coaches over the past six years, and it is not hard to understand why. His team has played in four NFC championship games during that stretch and two Super Bowls, and has consistently been a legitimate contender. 

But even with that success we might be at a point where we need to start asking some questions about whether or not he is still truly an elite head coach, or if he has simply benefitted from being in the right situation at the right time. 

At the very least, it is time to start asking if the 49ers have missed a golden opportunity during his tenure. 

This is not to say that Shanahan is a bad coach. He is not. If he became available tomorrow, there would be no shortage of NFL teams that would be lining up to hire him, and probably quite a few that would be willing to fire their current coach for that opportunity.

He is good.

He has a great mind for offense.

He has won a lot. 

But if you dig beneath the surface a little, you start to see some cracks that make you wonder if the 49ers will ever win a ring under his watch. Or if they have already peaked under his leadership. 

This season has been especially difficult and disappointing, and it became even worse over the past week when wide receiver Deebo Samuel was getting upset about his lack of targets in the passing game and a starter for the season (linebacker De’Vondre Campbell) literally quit on him and the team in the middle of a season-crushing defeat. 

The latter development is a terrible look for everybody involved.

For as successful as the 49ers have been under Shanahan’s watch, it is not like they have been perfect. Shanahan’s career regular-season record of 70-59 is strong, but it is only 12th among active coaches and 72nd out 201 coaches in NFL history. It is good. It is very good. But it’s honestly just that. That winning percentage places him directly between Mike Vrabel and Jim Mora on the all-time list, and below the likes of Chuck Pagano, Jim Caldwell, Mike Zimmer, Jason Garrett and Wade Phillips, a collective of coaches nobody is calling elite. 

It is generally unfair to place a Super Bowl-or-bust mentality on a coach or a team because championships are rare. Most teams and coaches will fail to win one. But with Shanahan and the 49ers, it is not just the fact they have not won. It is the way they have lost. For years, we have heard about how talented the roster is and seen how close they have gone, but he consistently falls short in spectacular ways on the biggest stage. He blew two 10-point fourth-quarter leads in two different Super Bowls, tied for the second-biggest blown lead in Super Bowl history (trailing only the Atlanta Falcons team he was the offensive coordinator for). His team also blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in an NFC Championship Game that could have gotten them to a third Super Bowl. 

Those are tough games to overcome, and there is no guarantee you ever get another chance at it. 

Given the ages of the 49ers core, the upcoming salary-cap constraints with some of their contracts and the uncertainty surrounding quarterback Brock Purdy and his next contract, it is looking increasingly likely that the 49ers window might close without a championship. 

For a team with the talent it has had over the past few years, that is wildly disappointing. The coach has to own that.