Lions' Jared Goff is closer to being a top 50 QB of all time than Joe Burrow, Eli Manning, and more, according to this methodology

Goff at 51 is higher than some big names that many might think are better than Goff. Guys like Joe Burrow, who comes in at 99, Justin Herbert at 88, Brock Purdy at 62, or Eli Manning at 96. 

The methodology Cole has built is quite technical. He says "The foundation of the analysis is efficiency over league-average adjusted for era."

He uses adjusted net yards per attempt over expected points added in passing, since EPA doesn't go back far enough. He's judging this from 1947 to now. 

He also weighs in on rushing, playoff performances, peak seasons, sacks, and more. I recommend reading his full methodology to understand the rankings. 

It's not hard to understand why Goff is here when you look at some of the stuff he's talking about. He's had three peak seasons in a row in which he's been top five or at least top eight in every passing category in the NFL. People like to think he's still the 2020 Goff five years later, but he has demonstrated that he's definitely not that. 

He's also had some standout playoff performances as of late. He was masterful against the Rams and Bucs in the 2023 playoffs, although Cole notes that Goff's performance in the 2024 playoffs played a role in keeping him outside the top 50. That and these other things. 

"What Goff lacks a bit compared to others ranked higher is the combination of elite efficiency with high volume. Goff ranked fourth, seventh, and second, respectively, in adjusted net-yards per attempt (ANY/A) the last three seasons, but finished sixth, second, and 10th in pass attempts, also lacking meaningful contributions rushing the ball." 

So, what does Goff need to do to break into the top 50? Cole says that he needs to simply continue his strong regular-season play and have some solid playoff outings, and he'll be in. 

Cole does worry that with Ben Johnson leaving town and the Lions' cap situation changing with his big deal, as well as all the big deals that Detroit will have to pay out, Goff could see a regression. While I think that eventually comes because Father Time is undefeated, a step back for Goff doesn't seem like something that's going to come any time soon.