Lions vs. Colts: Keys to watch, predictions in Week 12 matchup

The Detroit Lions (9-1) take on the Indianapolis Colts (5-6) in a road matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday in Week 12.

The Lions haven't lost since Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as they won eight consecutive games heading into this weekend's contest.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis has lost four consecutive games, three of which ended by one possession.

Detroit is already 3-0 against AFC South opponents, outscoring the Houston Texans (26-23), Tennessee Titans (52-14), and Jacksonville Jaguars (52-6) by a tally of 130-43. 

The Colts have the slight edge in the all-time series, with a 22-20-2 record. Indianapolis won the most recent matchup held on Nov. 1, 2020 at Ford Field and have won the past five of six contests.

Here's a look at key matchups to watch for and predictions for Sunday's showdown.

Why I'm Confident

Josh: Lions Offense

How can you not be? The Lions are averaging 43 points per game over their last four, the best average over a single-season, four-game stretch in team history. The Colts defense ranks roughly halfway between the likes of Green Bay/Houston and Tennessee/Jacksonville, so another 30-point outburst by the Lions is very reasonable, and Indy’s offense has only scored that much once this season — against Jacksonville.

Tommy: Lions Offense vs. Colts Defense

Detroit not only could finish off the AFC South with a 4-0 record this season, but they very well could run up the points against a lackluster Indianapolis defense. Whether it's quarterback Jared Goff and the passing game or running backs David Montgomery and Jahymr Gibbs tearing up the ground game, it could be a long day for the Colts on the defensive side of the ball. No team wants to get in a shootout with the Lions these days, and with good reason.

Why I'm Concerned

Josh: Colts QB Anthony Richardson

The Colts’ quarterback looked much better in his return to the starting job last weekend, tallying over 300 total yards against a solid Jets defense and accounting for three touchdowns. If Indianapolis is going to win, Richardson is going to need a huge day, and he’s coming into Sunday with some momentum.

Tommy: No Alex Anzalone

The Lions won't have their defensive leader on defense on Sunday, as the linebacker was placed on injured reserve after he broke his forearm last weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars. That could prove to be a vital loss against a mobile quarterback in Richardson and a talented running back in Jonathan Taylor, as Detroit continues to deal with injuries on the defensive side of the ball this season.

Key Matchup

Josh: Detroit Secondary vs. Colts WR Alec Pierce

Indianapolis has a couple of big-play threats but Pierce has been the main guy this season. He’s essentially been the Colts’ Jameson Williams: 26 catches for 590 yards (22.7 per catch) and four touchdowns (Williams has 24 catches for 538 yards (22.4 per catch) and four touchdowns). They’re the only two players in the league averaging at least 20 yards per catch with at least 20 targets this season. Detroit needs to make sure Pierce doesn’t change the game for the Colts like Williams can for the Lions.

Tommy: Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Colts CB Kenny Moore II

According to Pro Football Focus, Moore II hasn't allowed a single touchdown in coverage this season, adding five passes defended and an interception. His 80.6 PFF coverage grade is seventh-best in the NFL, proving to be a worthy opponent opposite of St. Brown. The Lions receiver is looking to break the NFL record on Sunday by snagging a touchdown for the ninth-consecutive game, as he's currently tied for the longest streak since the 1970 merger.

All Eyes On

Josh: Lions LB Malcolm Rodriguez

With Alex Anzalone now on IR, Rodriguez and Jack Campbell will each have to take on more responsibilities for the rest of the season. In his return last week, Rodriguez was Detroit’s third-highest-graded defender by PFF. Now, in a bigger role, can he sustain that level of play?

Tommy: Colts DL DeForest Buckner

Buckner has played well since being activated off the injured reserve on Oct. 26. He has an 11.2% run stop rate, per PFF, ranking fifth among all defensive tackles with at least 52 run defense snaps. He's up against the best offensive line in the NFL, but could surely give the Lions problems if he's able to.

Prediction

Josh: 31-13 Lions

Again, the Lions are just on another level right now. They’ve won eight in a row, the second-longest, single-season winning streak in team history (10 in 1934), and look well on their way to at least matching that. I simply don’t think the Colts can slow the Lions enough to be able to keep up with them.

Tommy: 35-21 Lions

Detroit has all the momentum in the world and it's hard to say they won't get their 10th win of the season this weekend against Indianapolis. Richardson may keep it close but he could also return to struggling like he did at the beginning of the season. If it's the latter, it could get ugly at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Season Records

• Josh: 8-2 (Won last pick)
• Tommy: 8-2 (Won last pick)