Los Angeles Chargers ceiling and floor for 2023

The Chargers haven't won a playoff game since the 2018 postseason, but they could be on the verge of something big with young stars such as quarterback Justin Herbert and safety Derwin James Jr.

How much better Los Angeles will be from a year ago when it finished 10-7, is still up for debate. Here's our best guess at best- and worst-case scenarios for the Chargers.

Ceiling: 11-6

Los Angeles should be a perennial 10-win team because it has an elite, young QB in Herbert. In 17 games last season, the 25-year-old completed 68.2 percent of his passes, threw for 25 TDs and amassed 4,739 passing yards, second in the NFL. Herbert should reach the next level under new OC Kellen Moore and become an MVP candidate. Per OddsChecker, he has the fifth-best odds of winning the award. 

Other areas of the offense, which finished 13th in scoring last season, should also benefit under Moore. When he was Dallas OC from 2019 to 2022, the offense finished first in yards twice and top six in scoring three times. Los Angeles' offensive talent is similar to Dallas', with playmakers such as wide receiver Keenan Allen and running back Austin Ekeler. 

The roster is among the league's best, with eight Pro Bowlers on the 2021 and 2022 teams combined. If the Chargers stay healthy, their talent could elevate them into the AFC hierarchy, helping them vie for a high playoff seed.

Floor: 9-8

The schedule is tied for the 12th-most difficult in the league, per NFL Research. Los Angeles faces six teams that made the playoffs last season and five that won 12 games or more. Complete schedule analysis here.