Former Oregon Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert has had one of the most electric starts to an NFL career that a quarterback can have for the Los Angeles Chargers. He’s thrown for nearly 22,000 yards in five seasons and has 137 passing touchdowns to only 45 interceptions. He’s twice led the Chargers to the playoffs, although suffering two bigger defeats.
Where should Herbert rank on a list of the best quarterbacks in the NFL?
If it were a list based entirely on pure talent, Hebert would be no less than fifth, and arguments could be made that he’s closer to third than fifth. However, accounting for accolades, postseason success, and defining clutch moments, it’s fair to draw some questions about Herbert’s standing. In a list by Pro Football Focus, Herbert came in at No. 8 overall, stirring up a bit of controversy.
“Herbert might be the best regular-season quarterback in non-clutch situations. His 91.0 overall grade over the past three seasons ranks sixth, and when excluding playoff performances, his passing grade actually tops Patrick Mahomes'. In standard game situations outside of late-game or high-pressure moments, Herbert owns the second-highest passing grade in the league. With another year under Jim Harbaugh and improved weapons around him, we’ll see if he can finally get over the hump,” PFF writer John Kosko said.
While some may take the blurb as a slight, it’s not entirely untrue. Sure, the grading system itself is a bit more arbitrary and vague than most would admit, but the fact remains that Herbert doesn’t have as many signature moments in clutch moments as his contemporaries. That realization is also not solely on Herbert. Between coaching, untimely turnovers, poor protection, and a defense that, before this past season, routinely has let him down, Herbert’s had tough luck.
Regardless, he’s still one of, if not the most gifted, pure passers in the NFL. Hebert is also operating admirably in one of the most difficult situations as a thrower as well. Although Herbert threw the ball the least in his career when he completed all 17 games, the number of 20-yard or more throws on tape is astounding. Herbert still finished 9th in total passing yards while throwing 23 touchdowns to only three interceptions and the highest passer rating (101.7) of his career.
"I woke up the other day and said, 'I got to get Justin Herbert to the Hall of Fame. Must get Justin Herbert to the Hall of Fame,' " Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said on the Rich Eisen Show a few weeks ago. "It's one of those things you wake up at 3:30, 4 in the morning. Sometimes, that's when your best ideas come."
That expectation from Harbaugh should come as no surprise. Herbert has thrown for more yards than anyone in NFL history through five seasons. The amount of conversation this ranking has sparked is interesting, based on the facts that are presented. Yes, Herbert doesn’t have the postseason success or the history of repeatedly showing up in the clutch. He does have nearly 22,000 passing yards and has twice led his team to the playoffs with less-than-ideal rosters.
There’s no need to rush the end of Herbert’s story. It’s just beginning. He’s far past any bust allegations, but he still has plenty to prove if he can become the player he has the potential to be. Being ranked eighth overall in a ranking of the best quarterbacks in the league is no slight. In fact, it’s a perfect ranking for a player like Herbert. It shows respect for the talent level while acknowledging the overall success of others ahead of him.
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