Making Sense (Or Not) of the Dolphins First Pick Position Odds

At least one sportsbook thinks the Miami Dolphins likely will select an offensive lineman with their first-round pick in the 2025 NFL draft.

BetMGM released odds for the Dolphins’ most likely selection at No. 13 overall, and the offensive line leads the way at -120 odds. Although we’ve already outlined why the Dolphins probably shouldn’t take an offensive lineman that high, it seems like that’s not a popular opinion.

After the offensive line, BetMGM has three of the Dolphins’ biggest needs on defense close together. Safety is at +310, followed by defensive line/edge at +550 and cornerback at +600.

Those are followed by tight end and wide receiver, which are listed at +3,000 and +3,500, respectively.

We’ve decided to examine the Dolphins’ draft history and the players who could be available at 13 overall to see how these odds line up.

Dolphins Draft History

BetMGM’s odds make some sense with the Dolphins’ current team needs, but it also has some historical backing. Offensive line is tied with the defensive line for the Dolphins’ most frequent first-round selection, with the team selecting 12 all time at each position.

The last time the Dolphins took an offensive lineman in the first round was in 2020, when they selected Austin Jackson from USC at 18th overall. Before that, it was Laremy Tunsil, who the Dolphins selected 13th overall in 2016.

Offensive line is also the Dolphins’ most common selection regardless of round, as the team has selected 112 offensive linemen all time.

However, the high volume of offensive linemen should come with a caveat. The offensive line combines all positions — guard, tackle, center — which obviously leads to more frequent selections.

The same can be said of the defensive line, which is tied for the Dolphins’ most frequent first-round selection and for second in all-time selections (103). Depending on the scheme, there are at least three or four defensive linemen on the field most of the time.

Ironically, the Dolphins last took a defensive lineman in the first round was when they selected Christian Wilkins 13th overall in the 2019 NFL draft. Suffice to say the Dolphins have had good luck drafting trench players at 13th overall.

The last piece of this puzzle is the defensive backfield. This is another spot that combines multiple positions (cornerback, safety), so it makes sense it’s tied with the defensive line for all-time selections and third in first-round selections (8).

The Dolphins’ last first-round defensive back came in 2020 when the team took Noah Igbinoghene at pick 30.

Who Are Realistic Options at 13?

While BetMGM’s odds line up with the Dolphins’ draft history, betting on the spots that make up multiple positions isn’t challenging.

Where things get more complicated is looking at how the draft is expected to play out. The top two offensive linemen — Will Campbell and Armand Membou — are expected to be off the board when the Dolphins pick.

Mock drafts have frequently paired Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. and Alabama’s Tyler Booker with the Dolphins, but that would be a reach for both players. Additionally, the Dolphins already have four out of their five offensive line starters.

Patrick Paul, James Daniels, Aaron Brewer and Jackson are penciled in as starters — assuming Terron Armstead doesn't return for a fourth season with the team. So, the Dolphins reaching to select a player who will almost certainly play guard in 2025 doesn’t make much sense.

Defensive line and cornerback should probably be favorites for roster reasons and because how the draft is projected to play out. The Dolphins have just two interior defensive linemen on the roster (Zach Sieler and Benito Jones) who are expected to play next season.

Unlike the offensive line, top interior defensive linemen like Michigan’s Kenneth Grant, Oregon’s Derrick Harmon and Mississippi’s Walter Nolen should be on the board at pick 13. While Harmon and Nolen would be reaches, the Dolphins’ need at defensive line is more dire, making a reach more justifiable. 

The same can be said about the team’s defensive backfield. Miami needs a starting cornerback and safety before training camp, and plenty of options should be available at 13 overall.

At cornerback, Michigan’s Will Johnson and Texas’ Jahdae Barron have become popular mock draft pairings for the Dolphins. Neither would be a reach, and both would fill an incredibly valuable long and short-term role.

As for safety, Georgia’s Malaki Starks and South Carolina’s Nick Emmanwori should be on the board at pick 13 and would fill the other safety spot opposite newcomer Ifeatu Melifonwu. Starks is a cleaner fit, but Emmanwori is an impressive athlete with a lot of upside.

While it’s easy to justify the offensive line as the Dolphins' most likely selection based on their draft history and recent struggles up front, this argument doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

The team has more significant needs (defensive line, cornerback, safety) that align much better with how the draft is projected to play out.

Of course, a top prospect, like Campbell or Membou, could fall to 13. Or, the Dolphins could execute a trade up or down the board, meaning the value of drafting an offensive lineman would make more sense.

Anything is possible, but as things stand right now, the offensive line probably shouldn’t be the favorite at pick 13.

-- Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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