Traditionally, Matthew Stafford is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. It’s been a while since he’s impressed, though, considering how last season went for his Los Angeles Rams. It’s natural that Stafford’s ADP would fall, seeing as this would be his eighteenth season out of Georgia, and nobody can play at an elite level for that long save Tom Brady. Is it still a good idea to draft Stafford, or leave him on the waiver wire?
Stafford arguably had his statistical worst season last year. His 20 touchdowns and 3763 yards have been his lowest in each category for every season where he played more than ten games. The thing about Stafford’s career, though, is that even his worst numbers are still pretty good. Stafford was still able to hit over 20 fantasy points in three weeks on the season and finished the year with a 93.7 QBR. His big games were infrequent, though, and there were seven times last season when his fantasy points were less than ten.
Even though his performance was spotty last year, Stafford may be set up to have a bit of a comeback season. He just got Davante Adams, who should be part of the best one-two punch in football with Puka Nacua. He also still has one of the best offensive minds coaching him in Sean McVay. Although he should do better than last year, it’s hard to recommend him as a QB1 for this year.
Currently, Stafford’s ADP is sitting at 22 amongst quarterbacks. That means unless there are eleven-player leagues out there, Stafford will likely be left on the draft board. There is always the chance that some drafters might take Stafford over guys like J.J. McCarthy or Trevor Lawrence, both of whom have higher ADP than Stafford.
It’s most likely, though, that Stafford will fall down to later rounds, so players who want Stafford don’t need to waste an early pick on him. The best strategy with Stafford might be to wait until the end of the draft to take him, or even pick him up off waivers and only play him in weeks where he’s projected to do well. Just keep in mind that there are other QB2s out there, like Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, that might end up with better numbers.
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