Miami Dolphins' One Big Question: Is Tua Tagovailoa A Franchise Quarterback?

Of course, the week after he set that all-time three-game record, Tagovailoa threw three interceptions in a 20-12 Week 15 loss to the Houston Texans — and he was a hair's breath away from throwing at least one more. Both Tagovailoa and receiver Tyreek Hill, the target on all three of the picks, took responsibility for the miscues, but the fault is not the point as much as this game seemed to be a throwback to an earlier and more uncertain time in Tagovailoa's career. 

“Plain and simple, just my fault," Tagovailoa said postgame. "I’ve got to protect the ball. I’ve got to play better ball for our guys, especially in a situation where the team is counting on me to go and drive our offense down to potentially tie the game up, and that’s not what I did. That’s not how you win games in this league. Very disappointed with how I played today and with how I conducted myself on the field, with our guys, with our team. I just need to be better in all aspects with that.”

One week later in a 29-17 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Tagovailoa completed 22 of 34 passes for 215 yards and a touchdown, but that was also the end of his season, as a hip injury that had been bothering him before flared up the point where it was the right call to shut him down for the rest of the 2024 campaign. Had the Dolphins snuck into the postseason, there was no guarantee that Tagovailoa could have played.  

So, as he prepares for his sixth NFL season, where does Tua Tagovailoa stand in the Quarterback Pantheon, and can he save his team from the specter of Quarterback Purgatory — that unenviable spot where teams find themselves after committing all possible resources to a quarterback who just doesn't have it... or, if he does have it, can't stay healthy consistently enough to display it? 

Tagovailoa does have clear limitations. He has never bean a transcendent deep-ball thrower, and the Dolphins have done their level best to surround Tagovailoa with the kinds of weapons that would seem to make that less important. When your two primary receivers are Hill and Jaylen Waddle — either of whom can scorch any defender in the league at any time downfield — and you then acquire former Tennessee Titans speed receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in a free-agent move that borders on outright larceny? It could credibly be argued that no other NFL quarterback has more estimable and productive deep threats at his disposal. 

Tagovailoa also isn't a threat as a runner or as a pure second-reaction thrower. Most of his scrambles are of the random and desperate variety; his efficiency under pressure has more to do with pocket movement and re-setting after first disruption as opposed to blowing defenses away with designed runs and whatnot. 

So, if you aren't equipped to dominate consistently with a rocket arm and/or next-level running ability, you'd better be nails in the pocket. Last season, Tagovailoa qualified for the most part. When throwing from the pocket, he completed 269 of 357 passes for 2,655 yards, 1,013 air yards, 17 touchdowns, a passer rating of 104.7 (eighth-best in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts from the pocket), and an EPA of 52.91 (also eighth-best in the NFL). 

Tagovailoa's completion rate of 75.4% from the pocket was the NFL's best, but his performance from the pocket on throws of 20 or more air yards was worrisome: nine completions on 22 attempts for 348 yards, 217 air yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 79.0.

Having a pure point guard quarterback who's more of a ball distributor than an explosive play machine isn't always a one-way ticket to mediocrity. But when your quarterback boxes you in from certain physical standpoints, he must be above reproach on the things that most matter to successful, albeit physically limited, players at their position. 

There are ways in which Tagovailoa does this, and at his best, he's well above average. The question is whether the injuries have already and will continue to affect his overall development negatively. Especially the multiple concussions, which have already had Tagovailoa thinking about retirement at one point in his career, and with which the mental processing issues are unknown — and therefore unattributable. 

Not that Tagovailoa's difficult season is the Dolphins' only problem. Multiple players pointed to an overall lack of discipline as the 2024 season ended, and both Tyreek Hill and cornerback Jalen Ramsey have reportedly made loud noises at certain points in time about wanting to play elsewhere. The team will have to shore all that stuff up if they're to bounce back from last season's disappointments, and bring all of Mike McDaniels' interesting offensive ideas to fruition. 

Hill seems to have come around; Ramsey may well be out the door in a post-June 1 trade. 

But the main thing is, if you don't have a quarterback, you don't have a chance. The jury is still out on Tua Tagovailoa to a point, and it will be on a healthy Tagovailoa (if that's what he is in 2025) to silence the doubters. Any variance from that result could lead to a lot of changes after the fact. 

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions).