Mike Evans so far is 12 for 12: 12 seasons in the league and 12 seasons with at least 1,000 yards catching. While most players begin to decline at that age, Evans still looked great last season, averaging 17.2 fantasy points a week. That being said, the Buccaneers did make some moves on offense that may affect Evans’ ceiling. Do players still go big on him, or is it time to pump the brakes on Evans?
It wasn’t like Evans was a lock to be one of the top receivers each week, but there were lots of weeks last season where he ran up a big stat sheet. The numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt, though, since his best performances came after Chris Godwin’s injury.
Evans never had fewer than 10 fantasy points in any game from Week 12 onward, and that includes a multi-touchdown 159 159-yard game against the Chargers. When Tampa Bay had its full complement of receivers, Evans’ performance was a bit more varied.
He had some duds, like his 3.7 fantasy point game against Denver. Evans also didn’t get more than 100 yards in any game through Week 7 (which was Godwin’s last game), so he really needed touchdowns to bump his scores up.
Based on the way Tampa Bay is moving this offseason, it looks like they are focusing on young receiving talent, which might mean fewer targets for Mike Evans. They drafted Emeka Egbuka , and they still have a young Jalen McMillan to feed the ball to.
On top of that, Chris Godwin will be returning, and considering that they have a tight end and two running backs who can catch, it’s clear to see that there are a lot of targets to go around. That makes it less likely that Evans is going to get five catches every game. He still is a top receiver talent-wise, though, so he will have some big games, just not every week.
This poses an interesting issue in terms of draft position for Evans. Fantasy Pros has him ranked at number 12 for wide receivers, which would make him a WR1 in leagues with at least 12 players. Taking Evans as a WR1 is risky, though, especially with Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranked below him. It may be a better idea to chase the upside with some of these other players who won’t have to fight for targets. After taking a WR1, though, Evans would make a great WR2.
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