
On Sunday night, the New England Patriots (11-3) will square off against the Baltimore Ravens (7-7).
Even though the Patriots appear to be the superior team based on their record, Sunday's bout will likely be a close one. In fact, because of New England's banged up defense (five starters battling injuries), the odds may tilt in Baltimore's favor.
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel agreed that Baltimore was a tricky opponent. He specifically mentioned Ravens running back Derrick Henry, whom he coached for six seasons with the Titans. Vrabel called Henry a "unique player" with "great speed and great power."
The Patriots coach admitted that stopping Henry would be "a great challenge," but that is an understatement.
Henry has the fifth-most rushing yards (1,125) and touchdowns (10) in the NFL. Since Week 11, the Patriots' defense ranks 30th in EPA (expected points added) per rush, making them one of the NFL's worst against the run.
Three of the Patriots' starting linebackers have battled health issues this week in Christian Elliss (illness), Harold Landry III (knee) and Robert Spillane (ankle).
Spillane did not play in Sunday's 35-31 loss against the Bills, and Buffalo RB James Cook ran for 107 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. If the Patriots are down even more run-stoppers when facing Henry, things could get ugly.
If the Patriots defense cannot manage Henry, then the offense must respond by producing at a high level. Baltimore's passing defense has a few holes. This season, they have allowed the seventh-most passing yards (233.4 per game) in the NFL.
That should give Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who has tossed for 3,567 yards and 23 touchdowns, an opportunity to outscore Baltimore's explosive offense, negating any damage done by Henry.
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