Mike Zimmer Breaks Out Statistics to Defend the 3-4 Minnesota Vikings

Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer isn't known for being particularly fond of statistics.

After his team gave up 184 rushing yards in a 14-7 loss to the Browns in Week 4, Zimmer said he wasn't worried about his run defense, despite the numbers. "You guys worry so much about stats and not about how things look and how things are," he said to reporters.

A month later, apparently Zimmer's feelings on stats have changed. 

With his seat perhaps hotter than it has ever been during his eight-year tenure in Minnesota following an ugly home loss to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys, Zimmer showed up to his Wednesday press conference armed with numbers. The point, one can assume, was to show that even though the Vikings are 3-4, they're still — as Zimmer has preached throughout this turbulent season — a good football team.

“We've gotta do better in two-minute drills," Zimmer said when asked about his defense. Then he pulled a card of some sort out of his pocket. 

"You know, we’re eighth in turnover differential, 12th in points per game, number one in sacks, fifth in third downs, 13th in first downs per game. So there’s some good things."

Why the stats, coach?

“Hey, gotta be prepared for some of these questions I get," he said.

A few minutes later, when the topic of discussion turned to the struggling offense, Zimmer brought the card out once again.

“Yeah, we’re 10th in rush per game, eighth in pass yards per game, first in interception percentage, fourth in sacks per play, 11th in first downs per game, seventh in yards per game. So, we’ve just got to do better in the red zone."

That's all well and good. But here's the issue: I'm not sure those cherry-picked statistical rankings make Zimmer and the Vikings look as good as he thinks. 

For one, other stats exist, some of which might be a better reflection of their true performance this year. They're 18th in points per game on offense and 20th in yards allowed on defense. They're 21st in offensive EPA per play and 30th in success rate, which is another efficiency metric. Sure, Cousins hasn't thrown many interceptions, but that's in large part because he ranks 26th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in Next Gen Stats' aggressiveness stat (which quantifies how often a QB throws into tight windows) and 33rd in average depth of target. He hasn't been sacked much either, but he gets rid of the ball quickly of out of necessity because the Vikings rank 31st in PFF pass-blocking grade as a team.

Are those stats I just listed somewhat cherry-picked as well? Absolutely. But it goes to show that you can paint whatever kind of picture you like based on which numbers you choose to display.

The other issue with Zimmer's approach of defending the quality of the team with stats is this: if your team is indeed as good and talented as you seem to believe, doesn't it reflect poorly on you as the head coach that the record isn't better? That's the primary criticism of Zimmer this season. With a good veteran quarterback, elite offensive weapons, and a defense filled with veteran mainstays and hand-picked free agents, shouldn't the Vikings be better than 3-4?

It's true that not all of Minnesota's struggles this year can be pinned on Zimmer. Klint Kubiak, the offensive line, Cousins, special teams, and certain defensive players (Bashaud Breeland, D.J. Wonnum, Anthony Barr) also deserve plenty of blame. But at the end of the day, Zimmer is the head coach. The Vikings are where they are because of his poor game management, the failures of his defense in big moments, and his outdated offensive philosophy.

Zimmer can read off all the stats he wants, but he knows that's not going to cut it. If he wants to stick around as the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings past this season, nothing matters other than winning games.