'MNF' best bets: Let's go for a +1292 Same Game Parlay

Hear us out: let's win a parlay tonight to end our Week 10 in style. You in?

On paper, the entire Buffalo Bills offense looks poised for a big game against the lowly Denver Broncos; Denver can't stop the run or the pass in any capacity. You then consider that Buffalo is just 2-3 in its past five games, losing ground in both the division and conference. It's not hyperbole to suggest this is a must-win game for the Bills, and not just a must-win, but a must-dominate.

Given the motivating factors for a strong performance and the numbers suggesting they can deliver, the best approach for tonight may be to go aggressive on a big day. Here's how we'll do it.

+1292 SGP for 'MNF'

Make sure to opt in to the profit boosts offered on DK and FD! The below combination has slightly better odds on FanDuel, so that's where we went.

Leg 1: Dalton Kincaid 50+ receiving yards

Buffalo's Kincaid has been on a tear as the top tight end Dawson Knox went down. Kincaid has finished 75, 65 and 81 receiving yards over the past three weeks on 26 targets, and now he gets a Broncos defense allowing the most receiving yards per game to TEs. Kincaid should be able to keep it rolling.

Leg 2: James Cook over 58.5 rushing yards

No team in the NFL allows more rushing yards per game to running backs than Denver at 130.88 yards/game. Cook is Buffalo's top back, averaging 12 carries per game. He should see the workload to capitalize against this defense.

Leg 3: James Cook over 18.5 receiving yards

Cook should also be able to find room in the passing game. The Broncos allow the third-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards per game to RBs. Cook is over this total in five of his last eight.

Leg 4: Bills over 27.5 points

Denver tops the NFL with 28.3 points allowed per game, and as we mentioned at the top, we're expecting a pure Buffalo beatdown. You may be surprised to know that Buffalo hasn't hit this total since Week 4. It's time they get back on track as they gear up to stay in the playoff race in a packed AFC.

A bet here also allows us to remove the need for certain players to score touchdowns, which was almost the approach we took here. This way, we can just be happy no matter who scores.

Leg 5: Buffalo first-half winner and end-of-regulation winner

There's not much more to say here that we haven't touched on yet: we're all in Buffalo here. You can find this leg under the Popular tab labeled first-half/regulation winner parlays. This is set to be the Bills show from start to finish, and this leg at -160 helps push this play above +1000.

Together, this parlay comes in at +1292 on FanDuel using their 30% profit boost. Good luck tonight, and go Bills!

In the news ...

NFL Week 10 shows us C.J. Stroud is special, Lions are legit and Joshua Dobbs is electric — Another great Sunday is in the books, headlined by four walk-off field goals. Our biggest takeaway? C.J. Stroud is already an elite quarterback. Even without his top WR, Stroud threw for over 350 yards and led Houston (5-4) down the field on a game-winning drive for the second straight week, this time against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Stroud is now -1600 to win Rookie of the Year, but more importantly, he's entered the MVP discussion at +3000. Meanwhile, Detroit won a shootout over the Chargers to advance to 7-2 and give the Lions a legitimate shot at the top overall NFC seed by season's end. Detroit is +380 to advance to the Super Bowl.

In Minnesota, Joshua Dobbs is playing some tremendously entertaining football. Dobbs led the Vikings to another win, their fifth straight, putting them squarely in the postseason mix at 6-4. As for some of this week's losers, the Giants are atrocious, Mac Jones was benched again, and Trevor Lawrence laid an egg against the Niners, calling into question the Jaguars' championship legitimacy. 

Tyrese Maxey drops 50 on Sunday — Tyrese Maxey showed why Philadelphia was so willing to ship out James Harden, as the Sixers guard dropped 50 points on Sunday in a historic performance. Maxey filled the stat sheet, adding seven rebounds, five assists and three blocks, joining Harden and Damian Lillard as the only players to ever produce such a game. Maxey is currently +120 to win Most Improved Player.

Edmonton Oilers fire Jay Woodcroft, install Kris Knoblauch to turn season around — Edmonton is off to a disappointing 3-9-1 start to their season, made worse when you consider they have two of the best players in the league on their team in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Oilers management made the decision to relieve Jay Woodcroft of his coaching duties over the weekend, hiring AHL head coach Kris Knoblauch, most recently coaching the Rangers' AHL team. Knoblauch will now be tasked with turning a team around that is in win-now mode, and if you believe he can get it done, now might be the time to buy some Edmonton stock. The Oilers are -150 to make the playoffs, +1100 to win the West and +2200 to hoist the Stanley Cup.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll, the guy who won $8K on a $20 NFL parlay. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.