More evidence for how brutal the Chicago Bears' 2025 schedule will be

When the schedule was released in May, the NFL announced that the Bears were projected to have the second-hardest SOS based on opponent win percentage (.571). Additional models forecast the Bears to have between the eighth-hardest to the hardest SOS.

What makes these projections especially unfortunate for the Bears is that in 2024 they had the toughest actual SOS.

If any team has a good case for deserving an easier schedule in 2025, it's the Bears. In fact, in two of the last three seasons, the Bears' actual SOS was the hardest in the NFL. But as we know, that's not how it works. With the way schedules are constructed and planned years in advance, the schedule difficulty can't be manipulated in a meaningful way (not that the NFL does this anyway).

Adding to these dire SOS projections, a new piece of information sheds more light on why the 2025 schedule will be so difficult — beyond just playing within the highly competitive NFC North or facing AFC North teams this season.

Per Clevta from Clevanaltyics, when looking at each team's schedule versus how good their opponents' offenses and defenses were in 2024 (as measured by expected points added, or EPA):

• Bears' offense will face the second-toughest set of opposing defenses from 2024
• Bears' defense will face the second-toughest set of opposing offenses from 2024

So no reprieve from a high degree of difficulty on either side of the ball. Head coach Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen both will have their work cut out for them.

A few things:

• It's important to note (as Clevta does) that this isn't entirely predictive as teams make adjustments to their roster each offseason via the draft, free agency and trades.

• However, I do believe there is still fairly good carryover of performance for most teams' offensive and defensive units from season to season. They generally finish within the neighborhood (5-8 spots) of where they finished the season before.

• So while the teams with excellent 2024 offenses and defenses (which make up most of the Bears' schedule) may have lost a few players, it would be highly unlikely that in one season they would regress to the mean and become average or below (assuming no significant injuries).

What's more, if we look at the table and simply add the ranking together for offenses and defenses that teams will face, the Bears have the toughest combination of anyone.

Contrast that with the 49ers. They face the easiest combination of anyone, with the second-easiest set of offenses and second-easiest set of defenses. Mirror opposite of the Bears.

If there is any good news, it's that the every team in the NFC North has it hard on this metric. So there is relative parity in competing for the division crown.

Bears, Vikings and Lions have the three-toughest sets of opposing offenses and defenses from 2024. The Packers have it slightly easier, ranking ninth.

• Bears offense will face #2 toughest set of 2024 defenses. Bears defense will face #2 toughest set of 2024 offenses.
• Vikings offense will face #4 toughest set of 2024 defenses. Vikings defense will face #3 toughest set of 2024 offenses.
• Lions offense will face #5 toughest set of 2024 defenses. Lions defense will face #8 toughest set of 2024 offenses.
• Packers offense will face #10 toughest set of 2024 defenses. Packers defense will face #10 toughest set of 2024 offenses.