Most intriguing 2019 NFL season-long player prop bets

It'll go down as one of those classic "where were you when" moments, and you'll remember. Andrew Luck's shocking retirement announcement shook not only the NFL but also sportsbooks around the world. In the blink of an eye, the Indianapolis Colts' Super Bowl odds cratered from 16-to-1 to 50-to-1. However, some believe Luck's departure is only temporary and that once his body fully heals, he'll miss the bright lights and return to the field. In fact, Bovada posted these future odds about Luck earlier this week:

Where will Andrew Luck play in 2020 or 2021?

NFL (+500) | XFL (+1,500) | neither league (-4,000)

So if you don't believe Luck will play professional football and he doesn't return before the end of the 2021 season, you'd have to wager $4,000 to have a shot at $100 in return. What's more fascinating is that Bovada believes the XFL may last three seasons.

With Luck's emotional retirement addressed, here are some other intriguing season-long NFL prop bets.

All odds, Bovada

Odds: over 999 yards (-115) | under 999 yards (-115)

During his rookie season, Fournette averaged 80 rushing yards per game and racked up a total of 1,040 yards. He did this despite missing three games due to injury. The snake-bitten running back out of LSU missed eight more games during his sophomore season last year. So this prop bet comes down to if you believe Fournette can find his rookie form, average 4.0-plus yards per carry and play all 16 weeks of the regular season. 

The bet: UNDER

Odds: over 1,090 yards (-115) | under 1,090 (-115)

Through the first six games of his rookie 2018 season, Chubb ran the ball only 16 times. He still managed to tally 996 rushing yards by the end of the season. Chubb averaged 82.3 rushing yards per game during the final 10 regular-season contests. With Duke Johnson traded and Kareem Hunt suspended the first eight games this season, this is Chubb's backfield to own. However, as great as his production was last season, the Browns weren't featuring Odell Beckham and Chubb wasn't a big part of passing downs, as he will be more often this year. It's a well-thought-out O/U threshold by oddsmakers.

The bet: OVER

Odds: over 24.5 (-115) | under 24.5 (-115)

The Jets sophomore trigger finished his rookie season with 2,865 yards, 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while completing just 57.7 percent of his passes. In other words, Darnold experienced some NFL growing pains after leaving USC early. Although we didn't see him play during the preseason, one should expect Le'Veon Bell to be heavily featured in the Jets passing game. In his final two seasons with the Steelers, Bell averaged 80 receptions and more than 600 receiving yards per season with four receiving touchdowns. Bell's dynamic play paired with an underrated starting receiver in Robby Anderson has me believing in Darnold this year. The Jets might not catch the Patriots, but their sophomore quarterback will show signs of improvement.

The bet: OVER

Odds: over 36.5 (-115) | under 36.5 (-115)

Mahomes set the league on fire when he tossed 14 touchdowns in his first four games last season. Although he went on to throw three or more touchdowns in a game seven more times last year, many pundits believe his 50 touchdown strikes will regress in this his second full season. I'm not buying it. Without Kareem Hunt, the backfield is led by underrated yet serviceable Damien Williams, who can also catch out of the backfield. With Williams, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, I don't see how Mahomes' touchdown total dips 14 scores year-over-year. Now if Hill is traded, as the rumor mill suggests, the UNDER would likely hit. But as of now, Mahomes will continue to torch secondaries.

The bet: OVER

Odds: over 9.5 (-120) | under 9.5 (-110)

The danger with this prop bet is tied directly to Odell's injury history. He's missed 16 games over the past two seasons with various ailments. So if you're of the belief OBJ will play in all 16 games, the OVER bet is the play, as Baker Mayfield and Freddie Kitchens will do everything in their power to target their prize offseason acquisition as often as possible. In the two seasons Beckham has played in more than 12 games, he's scored 23 touchdowns in 31 games.

The bet: OVER

Odds: Over 1,375 (+120) | Under 1,375 (-150)

Seven receivers and one tight end, George Kittle, finished with more than 1,375 yards last season. JuJu was one of the elite eight, as he had 1,426 yards. Heading into the 2019 season, one has to wonder: Did he rack up all those yards because of or in spite of Antonio Brown's presence on the field for the majority of the season? Brown, and all the defensive back attention he garners, is gone, which leaves JuJu to inherit those double coverages. Ben Roethlisberger is going to chuck the rock all over the yard en route to another 600-pass attempt season, but Smith-Schuster may realize life without Brown lined up opposite of him isn't the best way to build upon a stellar sophomore season.

The bet: UNDER

Odds: over 8.5 (-115) | under 8.5 (-115)

Over the past five seasons, the rookie leader in sacks has averaged 9.6, led by Bradley Chubb's 12 last season. Bosa's older brother, Joey, tallied 10.5 in his rookie campaign despite playing in only 12 games that season. Nick has missed most of training camp and the preseason due to an ankle injury, and there's no guarantee he'll play in Week 1. But when he does hit the field, he has some motivation to catch his brother's rookie-year mark.

The bet: OVER

Odds: over 575 (-105) | under 575 (-125)

Beasley averaged 588 receiving yards in his final four seasons as the Cowboys slot receiver. The Buffalo Bills' leading receiver of 2018, Zay Jones, finished with 652, and their WR2, Robert Foster, posted 541. In other words, the Bills passing game was and will likely remain terrible this season. Beasley is reliable and consistent, but we only know that within the confines of the Cowboys system where Ezekiel Elliott drew a lot of linebackers' attention and made Beasley's underneath routes easier. In Buffalo, two tailbacks nearing the end of their respective careers, LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore, aren't going to draw the same type of attention, which will make Beasley's road to 576 receiving yards difficult.

The bet: UNDER

Odds: over 9.5 (+125) | under 9.5 (-155) 

Brown's fight to keep his preferred football helmet is now over. He'll likely have one custom built before the start of the regular season. As much as some want to believe this latest chapter in the Brown soap opera matters, he is the type of athlete who would love to silence his critics by dropping some insane stats in his first season with the Oakland Raiders. Derek Carr, though far from an elite quarterback, built an above-average rapport with Amari Cooper before his departure. The same can happen with Brown, who is likely eager to mute the haters and pick up where he left off statistically. He's a great route-runner with burner speed who has averaged nearly 12 touchdowns per season over the past five. Don't write off AB just yet.

The bet: OVER

Odds: over 1,200 (-105) | under 1,200 (-125)

If Joe Mixon would have played in all 16 games last season, he would have eclipsed 1,200 rush yards with ease. He averaged 17 carries and 83.4 rush yards per game, or 4.9 yards per rush, which ranked second among backs with 200 or more carries last season. The Bengals are playing for 2020 and beyond, and Mixon will likely be a big part of that puzzle. So whether he soars past 1,200 yards in 2019 will depend on his game-to-game usage. Does Zac Taylor want to keep him healthy for next year? Will the Bengals be in rally mode in the second half and abandon the run and go to the air? Although Mixon's NFL career is experiencing an upward trajectory, perhaps Cincinnati protects him a little more this year in hopes of competing in 2020.

The bet: UNDER

Favorites: Jay Gruden (+300) | Pat Shurmur (+850) | Matt Patricia (+1,000)

The Washington Redskins front office may give Gruden another pass, as starter Case Keenum is more of a quarterback placeholder until rookie Dwayne Haskins is ready to inherit the role. Granted, Gruden is just 35-44-1 in five seasons as Washington's head coach, and he may have run out of slack. If Shurmur earns a pink slip, it would mark the second time he's lost a head coaching gig in the past seven years (Browns, 2012). At 10-1, the Lions' Matt Patricia may be a bargain. Despite a 10th-ranked defense, the Lions finished with the second-fewest takeaways (14) and posted a 6-10 record thanks, in part, to a 20th-ranked pass offense, 23rd-ranked rush offense and just 20.3 points per game. If they stumble out of the gate, don't be shocked if Patricia is the first head coach to go.

The bet: Patricia

Favorites: Jameis Winston (+750) | Ben Roethlisberger (+800) | Kyler Murray (+1,000)

Winston tossed 14 interceptions last season — tied for fifth-most among fellow quarterbacks. The catch is Winston did not start the season behind center; Ryan Fitzpatrick did. So Winston tossed those 14 picks in just 11 games. As Tampa Bay continues to rebuild and retool its roster, chances are the Buccaneers are going to be trailing in the second half on a regular basis, meaning Winston's going to have to go to the air more often. If he's not careful, he could easily toss 20 interceptions this season. Big Ben has averaged 14.7 interceptions per season over the past four, as his pass attempts have soared in recent years. It would be one thing if Le'Veon Bell was lined up behind him and you knew what to expect out of the Steelers running game, but James Conner, although steady, isn't bringing that same confidence. Expect Roethlisberger to air it out 600 more times this season with JuJu Smith-Schuster his top target.

The bet: Winston runs away with it (unless he gets benched)

BetOnline.ag Odds: Yes (+500) | No (-1,000)

Gronk was recently asked (at a CBD conference of all places) if he would ever consider a return to the NFL. He responded:

“Physically, I could do it. But mentally, it’s not there."

Now this is notable because let's say the Patriots endure another one of those heinous two- or three-game losing streaks, and the media wonders aloud if this is the end of Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots dynasty. Could you picture Gronk coming out of retirement to spark a sluggish offense on the cusp of winning another AFC East title and reaching the playoffs? I could. Gronk is a wild card: as unpredictable as they come and only 30 years old. Granted his body is beat up from his playing days, but it's safe to say that when it comes to Gronk, anything is possible. At only -1,000 (risk $1,000 to win $100), oddsmakers aren't truly convinced he's done. If they were, odds would be closer to -5,000.

The Bet: $20 on Yes

Odds: over 9 (-120) | under 9 (-110)

The O/U threshold is a work of art by oddsmakers because most believe the Browns are a 9-7 club. With so much hype surrounding Baker Mayfield and Co., bookies are banking on bettors to select the OVER 9 wins and capture the AFC North. With a below-average offensive line and some work to do on defense, it's more likely that Freddie Kitchens continues to experience some growing pains as a first-year head coach. All that glitters is not gold nor orange and brown. It may take another year before Cleveland sniffs the AFC playoffs.

The bet: UNDER (PUSH)

Odds: over 4.5 (-130) | under 4.5 (EVEN)

If bettors have learned one thing over the years, it's that "any given Sunday" holds true. However, when reviewing the Dolphins' 2019 regular-season schedule, it's quite difficult to find a path to five wins. Note: At some point in the season, even the worst NFL team finds a way to win a game outright that it has no business winning.

vs. Ravens (loss)
vs. Patriots (loss)
at Cowboys (loss)
vs. Chargers (loss)
BYE
vs. Redskins (win)
at Bills (loss)
at Steelers (loss)
vs. Jets (loss)
at Colts (win)
vs. Bills (loss)
at Browns (loss)
vs. Eagles (loss)
at Jets (loss)
at Giants (win)
vs. Bengals (win)
at Patriots (loss)

The Bet: UNDER