Most overpaid, underpaid players in AFC South

While manipulating the NFL salary cap is an inexact science, some general managers are simply better than others at finding budget-friendly contracts to offset the inflated deals typically agreed to in free agency.

Here are the most overpaid and underpaid players for each team in the AFC South: (all salary cap numbers provided by Spotrac) 

Houston Texans

Most overpaid: Ka’imi Fairbairn, kicker | Fairbairn’s $5.657M cap hit in 2023 is the second highest among kickers in 2023, just behind Justin Tucker’s $5.958M. Only four other kickers aside from Fairbairn make $5M per year or more, and all four have multiple seasons with a field-goal percentage of 90 or above; Fairbairn has just one.

While Fairbairn did have a strong season in 2022, it was more of an anomaly than the norm. In his previous five seasons, Fairbairn converted just 83.8 percent of his field goals and struggled on kicks from 40-49 yards (75 percent) and from beyond 50 yards (64.2 percent).

Most underpaid: Dalton Schultz, tight end | Among tight ends, Schultz’s $2.845M cap hit in 2023 ranks 28th despite outperforming most of those players. He ranked seventh among TEs in targets (89) and touchdowns (five), 10th in yards (577) and 11th in receptions (57) last year, and with a desolate Texans wide receiver group, he has a good chance of topping all of those numbers next season.

Indianapolis Colts

Most overpaid: Braden Smith, right tackle | Lane Johnson, Jack Conklin, Ryan Ramczyk and Penei Sewell — what do they all have in common? They all have at least one Pro Bowl or All-Pro selection, and they all make less than Smith, who has a $19M cap hit in 2023.

The 27-year-old tackle tied for the most sacks allowed on the Colts last season (seven) and allowed the most QB hits (seven). Smith has allowed seven or more sacks and 30 or more pressures in two of the past four seasons, and he’s had a pass-blocking grade of 75 or better (which typically indicates an above-average-to-good performance) from Pro Football Focus in just two of his five NFL seasons.

Most underpaid: Michael Pittman Jr., WR | Though he’s still on his rookie contract, it could be argued that Pittman Jr. is far outperforming his $3.948M cap hit. The 25-year-old wideout has led the Colts in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns each of the last two seasons, and he recorded his first 1,000-yard season in just his second year. Pittman Jr. has had 85 or more receptions and 925 or more receiving yards in each of the past two years and yet has a lower cap hit in 2023 than underwhelming Russell Gage, Devin Duvernay, Jamal Agnew and Tim Patrick, who hasn’t played in over a year.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Most overpaid: Cam Robinson, left tackle | Robinson’s $17.406M cap hit in 2023 is the ninth highest among left tackles, and he carries a higher cap hit than Pro Bowl-caliber tackles Dion Dawkins, Orlando Brown Jr., Andrew Thomas and Tyron Smith. He’s allowed 143 pressures, 102 hurries and 18 sacks over the past four seasons, and he’s surrendered 40 or more pressures and 25 or more hurries in three of the five full seasons he’s spent in Jacksonville. 

While Robinson is not a below-average left tackle, he also should not be among the 10 highest-paid left tackles either. Plus, he will miss the first four games of the regular season for violating league policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

Most underpaid: Trevor Lawrence, QB | The Jaguars better enjoy it while they can because having Lawrence for as cheap as a $10.034M cap hit will never happen again. Lawrence is developing into an elite QB, and when it’s time for Jacksonville to sign him to an extension, it’s going to make a sizeable dent in the checkbook. His 2023 cap hit ranks 16th among QBs, which is a steal for a player who ranked in the top 10 in passing yards (4,113), touchdown passes (25) and passer rating (95.2) last season.

Tennessee Titans

Most overpaid: Ryan Tannehill, QB | Tannehill’s $36.6M cap hit trails only Patrick Mahomes among QBs in 2023. That inflated number is not only an awful lot of money to pay a player who hasn’t thrown for 4,000 yards since 2015 and has just one 30-touchdown season in his career. It's also what likely kept the Titans from trading the soon-to-be 35-year-old during the offseason. Tannehill hasn’t been the same since offensive coordinator Arthur Smith left to become head coach in  Atlanta. With no way to move on from him, that $118M contract signed by former general manager Jon Robinson looks worse by the day.

Most underpaid: Kristian Fulton, CB | Fulton is the unquestioned No. 1 cornerback on the Titans and one of the leaders of the defense. To have him under contract with just a $1.695M cap hit is borderline robbery. Fulton has limited QBs to a completion percentage of 56.9 percent or less when targeted the last two seasons, and he’s one of the better cover corners in the NFL.