New Analysis Ranks New York Giants Rookie Jaxson Dart's Likelihood of Success

In the 2025 NFL Draft, 13 quarterbacks heard their names called to find out where they would be starting their professional careers, the New York Giants adding to the count with their selection of Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart.

Dan Lyons of Sports Illustrated ranked which rookie quarterbacks are best positioned to succeed. Dart came in fifth behind Tyler Shough, Jalen Milroe, Shedeur Sanders, and Cam Ward.

It’s important to note that “succeeding” means earning the starting quarterback job and leading the team to sustained victory. That two-pronged approach makes it difficult to predict the pick's success accurately.

If the measure is earning the starting job, Dart would be hurt more because the Giants have already said Russell Wilson will be the starting quarterback in 2025.

2026 that conversation will become more about Dart vs. Jameis Winston unless Wilson signs a contract extension. Even if Wilson is extended, 2026 should be an open competition between every quarterback on the roster.

However, I have an issue with the second part of the ranking, which involves finding success as the starting quarterback whenever possible, because I believe Dart will succeed.

If Dart doesn’t find that success, he should still be higher based on the likelihood of success. Sanders, Milroe, and Shough are more likely to earn a starting quarterback job than Dart, but they aren’t necessarily in a better position to succeed.

To evaluate a starting quarterback's success, it will come down to production and winning—that’s how quarterbacks are evaluated head-to-head.

Milroe will need plenty of time to develop individually in Seattle, but even looking at his situation, he has a defensive-oriented head coach who has just one year of head coach experience and fired his offensive coordinator after that one year. That kind of quick trigger could put a young quarterback at a disadvantage if it becomes a trend.

Shough is with a first-year head coach and an aging supporting cast with salary cap flexibility issues. Pair that with his inability to stay healthy throughout his career, which makes it challenging to assume success.

While I don’t think Sanders is a franchise quarterback, he does seem like a reasonably safe option as a starter. However, just like with the NFL Draft process, he must stay out of his way to be successful.

Dart has his question marks, and there may be the potential for instability with the coaching staff and front office if the team isn’t considerably improved in 2025. Still, there’s a legitimate argument that Dart is in the second-best position behind only Cam Ward.

Patience will be necessary for Dart. Nobody expects him to play this year outside of garbage time, but he’s better positioned to succeed based on his surroundings and a clear development plan than three of the rookies on this list.

If the measure is earning a starting role, keeping Dart fifth on the list is more understandable, but finding success should have Dart higher.

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