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New England Patriots: 4 bold predictions for Week 3 vs. Ravens

Originally posted on ClutchPoints | By Conor Roche | Last updated 9/24/22

The New England Patriots were able to get their first win of the season against the Steelers in Week 2, pulling away with a 17-14 victory in Pittsburgh.

New England heads home for its home opener on Sunday to play another AFC North team, the Baltimore Ravens. Like the Patriots did in Week 1, the Ravens fell to the Dolphins in Week 2, losing 42-38.

Will the Patriots carry the momentum or will the Ravens get back in the win column in Week 3? Here are four bold predictions for Sunday’s game.

Patriots Week 3 bold predictions

Mac Jones improves from mediocre Week 2 performance

Much of the talk in New England this week (at least prior to the stunning news surrounding Celtics coach Ime Udoka) has been focused on Mac Jones and his lack of improvement to begin his sophomore season.

Statistically, that would be correct. Through the first two games, Jones’ passing yards (465), passing touchdowns (two), interceptions (two), and passer rating (83.2) all rank in the bottom half among starting quarterbacks this season.

The eye test would agree. Jones has made a pair of questionable decisions on his passes that led to interceptions and didn’t make the right read on some other key passes.

However, I think the tide begins to change a bit this week for Jones. There were a pair of things New England found success in late during its Week 2 win over Pittsburgh: how to protect Jones and how to get the run game going.

The Patriots offensive line didn’t allow a sack last week, partly because they operated out of the shotgun for a large amount of the game (22 of their first 25 snaps in the second half came out of that formation). When Jones went back under center for several plays on the final drive, New England found success rushing Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson to the left side, between the tackle and guard, to get the ball moving and keep the clock running to end the game.

Those elements should open the passing game up a bit for Jones – whether it be getting more time in the pocket or potentially being able to run more play-action than the Patriots to open the season.

That isn’t the only factor going in Jones’ favor. The Ravens rank ninth in blitz rate, but are 15th in blitz rate success – which should help Jones if they’re doing that while he’s working out of shotgun.

Furthermore, Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor have continued to prove themselves as either dependable targets or quick-hit targets. Meyers caught nine passes against the Steelers, further proving to be Jones’ favorite target as many of the passes that went his way were intermediate strikes over the middle. Agholor has been used more as an outside screen option or for quick out passes dating back to training camp this season. He had six receptions last week, with a few of those coming in that variety while also adding the big touchdown grab.

I like how the Patriots freed up Jakobi Meyers on the first third down of the PIT game. Motioned him to the outside of trips, then had him slant straight back over the middle. Wide open, easy throw, strong finish, first down. Nice design. pic.twitter.com/EtbAv6Ti4B

— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) September 21, 2022

Lamar Jackson will have a field day

The 2019 MVP has been a one-man wrecking crew for the Ravens offense to start the season – throwing for 531 yards and rushing for another 136 yards.

I imagine we’ll see more of the same Lamar Jackson on Sunday.

The Ravens’ running backs haven’t had success so far this season, gaining just 74 yards on 29 carries. Of course, J.K. Dobbins hasn’t played and could make his season debut on Sunday, but he would play his first game in two seasons against a team that ranks ninth in run stop win rate to start the season.

On the flip side, the Patriots pass rush win rate doesn’t fare as well (it ranks 26th in the league) while the Ravens’ pass block win rate ranks a bit better (12th in the league).

So, if the Patriots aren’t able to get pressure on Jackson without a blitz, they’ll have to pick their poison between blitzing Jackson or forcing him to beat you through the air. Neither situation is deal for New England, which ranks below average in blitzing success rate and has corners that are pretty unproven. Pro Football Focus gave Jalen Mills a 28.6 grade for his performance in coverage against the Steelers as he allowed seven receptions on 10 targets for 90 yards.

Lamar 79 yard TD run! pic.twitter.com/d7acn69WA7

— Billy M (@BillyM_91) September 18, 2022

Sure, the Ravens might not have a receiver as good as Diontae Johnson, Mills covered for much of last week. But they don’t have a passer as bad as Mitchell Trubisky, either.

Scoring will be aplenty

Considering the strengths and weaknesses each team has shown so far, it’s a bit surprising the point total for Sunday’s game is only 44 points – which is just four more than last week’s Patriots-Steelers matchup.

Both defenses have clearly shown weaknesses so far. The Patriots let Tua Tagovailoa carve them up in Week 1, letting him throw for 270 yards on 33 attempts. In Week 2, the Steelers moved the ball well to open the game, converting six of their first seven third-down attempts. As the game moved on, Trubisky showed his true colors but the Patriots’ pass defense certainly seems vulnerable.

On the flip side, the Ravens had even more problems with Tagovailoa than the Patriots did. The Dolphins quarterback threw for a whopping 469 yards and six touchdowns last week, taking advantage of the one-on-one coverages the Ravens showed on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Here’s ALL SIX of Tua Tagovailoa’s Touchdowns from today! What a performance! #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/32IWZmeN6o

— Bobby Shouse (@B_Shousejr) September 18, 2022

The Patriots don’t have a receiving threat as dynamic as those two. But if Baltimore blitzes like it did last week, Jones can find success in completing passes to Meyers and Agholor and potentially Kendrick Bourne. New England also has its run game to work with Harris rushing for 5.0 yards per carry to open up the season.

Baltimore pulls away in a close one

If Sunday’s game turns into a shootout, that doesn’t favor the Patriots. New England has yet to win a game in which it’s allowed at least 25 points with Mac Jones as its quarterback. While I expect Jones and the Patriots offense to have a good day, I don’t expect them to be able to go toe-to-toe with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

Give me the Ravens to win 34-27.

This article first appeared on ClutchPoints and was syndicated with permission.

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