New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs predictions, odds, preview: NFL picks for 'Monday Night Football'

• Saints vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -5.5
• Saints vs. Chiefs over/under: 43 points
• Saints vs. Chiefs moneyline: Chiefs -250, Saints +200
• Saints vs. Chiefs pick: Under 43

My Chiefs vs. Saints best bet is Under 43. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.

Spread

I’m not betting the spread, but for those interested, the Chiefs are 18-31-2 (37%) ATS when favored by more than -3 since early November 2020, according to our Action Labs data.

This game also pops as a play on the Saints in our Luck Rankings, with New Orleans clocking in at 30th in luck while the Chiefs are second.

Moneyline

No play.

Over/Under

I’m betting on the under, and the best line (at the time of writing) is under 43 (-108) at DraftKings.

My pick: Under 43

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Monday Night Football Preview

Last season, Patrick Mahomes averaged a career-low 261.4 passing yards per game. Through four weeks, he’s on pace to once again set a career-low mark with 226.0 passing yards per contest.

The dip has nothing to do with Mahomes’ talent — if anyone is ever going to go down in history as better than Tom Brady, Mahomes has the best shot — but rather, the talent around him. The defense has been the best it’s been his entire career, Tyreek Hill is long gone, and this year in particular, there have been offensive tackle issues.

Mahomes has made it work by embracing underneath throws. His 5.6 intended air yards per attempt is 32nd of 33 qualified passers, and his yards after catch per completion is 6.6, fourth-highest.

That’s why losing Rashee Rice is such a massive blow. Despite an average depth of target (aDOT) of 5.2, Rice was able to average nearly 10 yards per target because of his YAC ability. When not throwing to Rice, who has accounted for 25.4% of team targets this season, Mahomes has been far less efficient.

• Mahomes to Rice: 82.8% comp, 9.9 YPA, 6.9% TD%
• Mahomes to all other receivers: 64.1% comp, 6.7 YPA, 4.3% TD%

Against a Chargers defense that ranks No. 3 in overall DVOA and No. 2 in pass defense DVOA, the Chiefs scored 17 points last week.

Things will get no easier against a Saints defense that is No. 2 in overall DVOA, No. 3 in pass-defense DVOA and No. 1 in passer rating allowed (68.0). Last week against the Falcons, the Saints did not allow an offensive touchdown, with Atlanta’s scoring coming via a defensive TD, special teams TD and four field goals.

After scoring 40+ in each of the first two weeks, the Saints offense has come back down to earth with 18.0 points per game over the last two weeks. That has coincided with the injury to center Erik McCoy (IR-groin).

With a 95.5 PFF grade, McCoy grades out as the best lineman in football. In this game, the Saints may end up giving a look to Connor McGovern at center just days after claiming him off the Cowboys‘ practice squad.

An offensive scheme with more motion and play-action seemed to catch defenses off guard the first two weeks, as Derek Carr averaged 11.4 YPA with 5 TD and 1 INT. The past two weeks, he’s come back down to earth with 6.1 YPA, 1 TD and 2 INT.

Under pressure, Carr’s completion percentage drops from 81.9% to 46.4%, per PFF. According to Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats, the Chiefs are tied for fifth in pressure rate (30.3%) entering Sunday’s games.

No team averages more rush attempts than the Saints’ 34.5 per game, and only the Chargers average fewer pass attempts than New Orleans’ 25.3 per game.

Unlike previous years, the Chiefs have been stout against the run. They allow the third-fewest yards per carry (3.8) and rank No. 2 in DVOA against the run.

According to our Action Labs data, Primetime unders are 163-109-3 (60%) since 2019, covering by 1.44 points per game and producing a 15% ROI.

Per Action Labs, the under is 56-35-1 (62%) when the Chiefs play at Arrowhead in the Andy Reid era, and 54-29-1 (65%) when the Chiefs are favored at Arrowhead.

Pick: Under 43 (to 41.5)

Betting Trends

• 51% of bets and 50% of the money are on the Chiefs to cover the spread.
• 82% of bets and 49% of the money are on the Over.
• 90% of bets and 82% of the money on the moneyline are on the Chiefs.

How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming

Chiefs vs. Saints is scheduled for a 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., on Monday night. The game is broadcasted live by ESPN and is streaming on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.