New York Giants 2025 Win Total – This Win Total Too High?

The Giants’ brass clearly believes Russell Wilson can resurrect this offense, signing the 36-year-old quarterback after his tumultuous stint in Pittsburgh. Sure, Wilson looked decent throwing to guys like George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, but now he’s tasked with making magic happen with… well, let’s just say the receiving corps in New York won’t be confused with Pittsburgh’s anytime soon.

The quarterback carousel continues to spin in MetLife Stadium. Daniel Jones? Gone to Indianapolis. Drew Lock? Shipped to Seattle. Tommy DeVito has been cut. The Giants are essentially banking their season on a quarterback who hasn’t been consistently elite since his early Seattle days. That’s not exactly a recipe for doubling your win total from the previous season.

Schedule from Hell: No Relief in Sight

Here’s where things get really ugly for Giants fans. New York faces what might be the most brutal schedule in the NFL, with their opponents combining for 155.5 wins last season. That’s not a typo—the Giants drew the short straw in a big way.

They’ll battle through the NFC North and AFC West, meaning they get to face powerhouses like Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Green Bay. Their “easy” matchups? Well, let’s just say those are few and far between. When you’re already talent-deficient, playing a schedule that would challenge even the best teams is a recipe for disaster.

Defensive Struggles Continue to Plague Big Blue

While everyone focuses on the offensive issues, the Giants’ defense remains a glaring weakness. They finished 28th in defensive DVOA last season, and frankly, the personnel changes don’t suggest much improvement is coming.

Sure, they added some pieces like Roy Robertson-Harris and Jevon Holland, but these are band-aid solutions to problems that require surgery. When you’re allowing opponents to score at will, it doesn’t matter if Russell Wilson throws for 4,000 yards, you’re still going to lose games. The defense has been bottom-10 in multiple key categories for years now, and there’s little evidence suggesting 2025 will be any different. Bad defenses don’t magically become good overnight, especially when facing the type of offensive firepower the Giants will see week after week.

Division Rivals Keep Getting Stronger

The NFC East isn’t doing the Giants any favors either. Philadelphia looks loaded for another playoff run with their 11.5 win total, Washington appears improved at 9.5 wins, and even Dallas sits at 7.5 wins despite their own issues. Going 0-6 within the division last season was brutal, but expecting significant improvement against these three teams seems overly optimistic. The Eagles and Commanders, in particular, look built to give the Giants fits for years to come.

The Betting Verdict: Under 5.5 Wins

Look, nobody wants to root against a franchise trying to rebuild, but the numbers just don’t add up for the Giants hitting the over. Between the quarterback uncertainty, defensive struggles, and that absolutely brutal schedule, six wins feels like a pipe dream. The smart money appears to be on the under, and for good reason. This team needs more than one offseason to dig out of the hole they’ve created. Russell Wilson might provide some excitement, but excitement doesn’t always translate to wins in the NFL.