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Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Malik Nabers (left) and Michael Penix Jr.
The New York Giants (2-12) and Atlanta Falcons (7-7) will face off in NFL Week 16. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. EST from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game will be broadcast live on FOX and can be streamed on YouTube TV.
The Falcons are favored by 8.5 points over the Giants with the game total set at 43 points scored. The Falcons are -450 favorites to win outright, while the Giants are +350 to pull off the upset.
The Falcons beat the Raiders 15-9 on Monday Night Football, but Atlanta still made a quarterback switch this week, benching Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. The Giants have had their own QB struggles, with Tim Boyle getting the primary action in last week’s 35-14 loss to the Ravens — New York’s 9th straight defeat.
Let’s get into my Falcons vs Giants predictions and NFL picks.
Giants vs. Falcons Odds, Pick, Prediction
1:00 p.m. EST
FOX
- Giants vs. Falcons spread: Falcons -8.5
- Giants vs. Falcons over/under: 43 points scored
- Giants vs. Falcons moneyline: Falcons -450, Giants +350
- Giants vs. Falcons best bet: Falcons -8.5
My Giants vs. Falcons best bet is on the Falcons, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
Despite the uncertainty with Penix at quarterback, I still like the Falcons in this spot. Big favorites have had success this season, and I expect Atlanta to continue that trend Sunday.
Moneyline
Given the large spread, there’s no real value on the moneyline in this one.
Over/Under
I also don’t see an edge on the over/under in this matchup, so I’ll pass on the total.
My Pick: Falcons -8.5
Giants vs. Falcons NFL Week 16 Preview
This one is a difficult game to project because of the uncertainty surrounding Michael Penix Jr.
According to Evan Abrams, no rookie quarterback has ever made his first career start in Week 10 or later and been a favorite of seven or more points. This is historic territory for the Falcons, mostly because they’re facing such an awful Giants team.
Drew Lock has the highest upside of any Giants quarterback right now, but that isn’t saying much. In his last start against the Saints, Lock completed 21-of-49 passes for 227 yards with an interception; he ran for 59 yards.
Overall, though, the Giants have nothing going for them. Fans can only hope they get the No. 1 overall pick next season, which they’re currently favored to do.
Ultimately, the Falcons offense is full of talent and in clear need of a spark. I’m not sure how much of it was on Kirk Cousins or how much was because of poor play-calling and scheming, but I’m going to back Atlanta.
Since Week 10, Cousins ranked 30th of 32 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play, and the Falcons scored more than 17 points only once.
This Giants defense has shown it can rush the passer at times this season, but its only successes have come against teams like the Saints or Panthers.
It’s the year of big favorites, and we have enough of a sample size this season for that to not just be a minor trend. I’ll lay the 8.5 points here with the Falcons, but I would only go up to 9.5.
My Pick: Falcons -8.5; Bet to -9.5
Falcons vs Giants Betting Trends
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