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NFC Championship early look: 49ers-Rams betting odds and angles
The second game of the NFL Conference Championship Weekend will be an NFC West battle between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.
This will be the third matchup this season between these two teams, with San Francisco winning both so far (and six straight against the Rams). Los Angeles will be the host, with action kicking off at 6:30 p.m. EST.
As we begin our prep for NFL Sunday, let's acquaint ourselves with the betting odds for this game, trends to keep in mind, and overall betting thoughts and angles for this game.
For full coverage of the weekend, don't miss our AFC Championship Game betting preview.
49ers vs. Rams: Odds and Betting Trends
Odds via DraftKings
- Spread: Rams -3.5
- Moneyline: 49ers +150 | Rams -170
- Total: 46 points
San Francisco Betting Trends
San Francisco, at 12-7, has won four straight games, with three straight on the road.
The 49ers are 11-8 against the spread this season, 7-4 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
Overs are just 8-11 in San Francisco games this season, a record that goes down to 1-4 when the Niners are an underdog. On the road, overs are 4-7 in 49ers games.
Los Angeles Betting Trends
The Rams (14-5) have won seven of their past eight games, with the lone loss a late-game collapse against this very same San Francisco team in Week 18.
Los Angeles is 10-9 ATS this season, 5-4 ATS at home but just 7-9 ATS as a favorite.
Overs are 10-8-1 in Rams games this season, the fifth-best mark in the league. At home, that record dips to 4-5, and overs are 7-8-1 in games Los Angeles is favored.
Approaching the Game: Against the Spread and Over/Under
This game has so many intriguing levels to it. Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers have absolutely owned the Rams and Sean McVay the past three years with a perfect 6-0 mark.
You see that, and one has to wonder if it will just be more of the same this Sunday.
The first meeting this year wasn't close, with San Francisco winning at home, 31-10. It took overtime in Week 18 for the 49ers to win again in what was a must-win scenario for the 49ers to clinch a postseason berth.
Since 1970, NFL teams that swept a regular season opponent and faced them again in the playoffs are 14-8 in the 3rd meeting
— Betting with Data (@bettingwithdata) January 26, 2022
Beating a team three times is very plausible
(h/t @DanGrazianoESPN for this nugget from last year before TB-NO. Bucs did win despite losing twice, FWIW) pic.twitter.com/UQJgjbWJIj
I'm positive the phrase "you can't beat a team three times" is in nearly every betting preview of this game, and it looks like I just added to the total.
With that out of the way, it's still important to dismiss that a bit. As you can see from the tweet above, teams are 14-8 when going for a season sweep of a divisional rival in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay bucked the trend last year, beating New Orleans after losing to the Saints twice in 2020.
Despite the recent wins San Francisco has had against this team recently, I think the Rams can follow Tampa's footsteps in two ways: taking down a rival that had their number and playing a Super Bowl in their home stadium.
Yep, Super Bowl LVI is in the Rams' shiny new L.A. stadium.
The 49ers' biggest strength is running the football, and no team is better at slowing down the run than Los Angeles. Led by Aaron Donald, the Rams' run defense ranks first on PFF and fifth in DVOA.
On the flip side, where San Francisco has struggled this year is slowing down receivers. Matthew Stafford has gotten the monkey off his back as it relates to playoff struggles, and he, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham and Van Jefferson should be able to move the ball against this defense.
Kupp is on another level right now, catching nine balls for 183 yards last week, including the grab that set up the game-winning field goal.
.@CooperKupp put the team on his back.
— NFL (@NFL) January 23, 2022
This ending was WILD. #LARvsTB pic.twitter.com/6clEXf9SQq
The Rams made the trade for Stafford this offseason for this exact moment, and I think it's his time to take advantage. Give me Los Angeles to win this game.
I don't love the -3.5 spread, which feels somewhat in no-mans land. I would hate to bet that number and have Los Angeles win by a field goal.
I prefer betting on the Rams to win this game outright and find a reliable second leg of a parlay to bring the odds down.
One angle on FanDuel worth consideration is to pair Rams ML with a Kupp alternate receiving yards line, like 70+.
Kupp has 70+ receiving yards in 17 of 19 games this season, and in the two games against San Francisco he's gone for 122 and 118 receiving yards.
I will very likely be betting Kupp's over on his prop standalone as well. We will touch on this game's prop angles later in the week, so stay tuned.
-112 SGP on FanDuel: Rams moneyline, Kupp 70+ receiving yards
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