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NFC Playoff Picture: Seeding still to be decided

Originally posted on Inside The Star
By Mario Herrera Jr. | Last updated Jan 4, 2026 12:34 PM ET

As we enter Week 18 of the 2026 NFL season, the NFC playoff picture has nearly taken full shape.

Three out of four division winners have been decided, and all three Wildcard teams are set in stone.

The only thing left to determine is seeding between the top seed Seattle Seahawks and the seventh seed Green Bay Packers.

There is much to discuss before the rest of Week 18 resumes today (Sunday) at noon, so let’s get to it.

Battle for the Final Spot

Six of the seven (cue the 6/7 kids) playoff teams have already been determined, so let’s call them out by division.

The NFC North will be represented in the playoffs by the division winner, the Chicago Bears, and a Wildcard team, the Green Bay Packers.

In the NFC East, the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles are the only representative for the division, as the next team up, the Dallas Cowboys, failed to qualify.

The NFC West came down to the final week, and a defensive battle in San Francisco saw the Seattle Seahawks come away with the road victory, the division title, and the conference’s number one seed.

That same division will also be represented by Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams, who are locked in as a Wildcard.

In the NFC South, the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers faced off against each other on Saturday.

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs stole a road victory to tie the Panthers at 8-9 for the division lead.

The winner won’t be decided until the result of the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons is decided.

If New Orleans wins, the Buccaneers are division champions. If the Falcons win, the Panthers take the crown and the fourth seed in the conference despite their 8-9 record.

Locked In

Only two teams are locked into their playoff positions.

The Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers are set as the one and seven seeds, respectively.

Seattle and the 12th man will be a tough place to play for any NFC opponent, and the road to the Super Bowl can definitely go through the Seahawks and their elite defense.

In Green Bay, the Packers will rest starters in Week 18 versus Minnesota, as they are set as the seventh seed, and will await whoever wins the second seed in the conference.

Up In the Air

The other four teams (plus the NFC South eventual winner) have a wide array of outcomes based on results of Week 18 and tiebreaker scenarios.

Let’s once again go by division, and the possible outcomes for each team.

NFC North

The only other representative besides the Green Bay Packers are the Chicago Bears, and they can either finish as the second or third seed this weekend.

A win automatically wins them the second seed, but a loss plus a Philadelphia win will knock the Bears down to third.

NFC East

The NFC East’s lone representative, the Philadelphia Eagles, currently sit as the third seed, but could climb to the second seed with a win over the Washington Commanders, and a Bears loss to the Detroit Lions.

NFC West

The NFC West is a different animal with three teams in the playoffs.

Seattle is locked in as the top seed, but the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams are battling for the fifth and sixth seeds in the Wildcard.

It’s simple for the Rams. Win and they are the fifth seed. Lose, and the top Wildcard seed (and the lucky team to face the NFC South winner) goes to the 49ers.

NFC South

The NFC South winner will have an 8-9 record, and will be locked into the fourth seed.

Whether that team is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Carolina Panthers is totally up to the success or demise of the Atlanta Falcons.

My Predictions

Based on projections and game trends this weekend, here are my predictions for the NFC Playoff matchups on Wildcard weekend.

The Seattle Seahawks (1) earned a bye with the top seed in the conference.

Green Bay Packers (7) at Chicago Bears (2)

Wildcard weekend will feature round three of the Bears versus the Packers after Chicago knocks off Detroit in Week 18 to secure the two seed.

San Francisco 49ers (6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3)

San Francisco didn’t take care of business when they had the chance to lock up the top seed in the conference, and are now relegated to the sixth seed.

Philadelphia will win in Week 18, but a Bears win will make that victory pointless.

Los Angeles Rams (5) at Carolina Panthers (4)

Los Angeles draws the privilege of visiting the 8-9 Panthers after the Falcons take care of business over the Saints, making Carolina the NFC South winner.

Cue the annual gripe about the better record Wildcard team having to visit the under .500 fourth-seeded division winner.

This article first appeared on Inside The Star and was syndicated with permission.

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