NFC South Week 12 predictions: Expect a logjam atop the division

It makes sense why Atlanta is hyped for this one; it's essentially the team's Super Bowl. A loss will probably seal the door shut on a postseason run while a win will give the Falcons a share of the division lead with six games to go. Quarterback Desmond Ridder is back after Taylor Heinicke suffered a hamstring injury, and head coach Arthur Smith sounded confident earlier this week about the second-year quarterback after he was benched for two games.

"We have a lot of confidence in Des... I think the reset will be very beneficial for him," said Smith. 

Ridder has a difficult matchup against a talented Saints secondary, even without Marshon Lattimore (hamstring). Paulson Adebo and Alontae Taylor have been excellent and should line up well against the Falcons wide receivers. While New Orleans allows 4.3 yards per rush, it's been one of the best in the league at containing running backs. The Saints only allow 3.9 yards per attempt to running backs, per RotoWire. They are just as sound against running backs in coverage, only allowing 4.76 yards per target, which could limit Atlanta rookie Bijan Robinson's production.

The Saints are tied with the Eagles, Cowboys and Jets for the most touchdowns allowed to tight ends. That bodes well for Jonnu Smith, inexplicably Smith's favorite offensive weapon, to take all of Robinson's red zone touches. Don't say we didn't warn you.

The Falcons do many of the same things well defensively as New Orleans does, allowing 3.8 yards per attempt to running backs. Corners A.J. Terrell and Jeff Okudah won't back down from Saints receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Saints quarterback Derek Carr remains in concussion protocol, increasing the probability that Jameis Winston will get his first start since Sept. 25, 2022. The game will likely come down to which quarterback, Ridder or whomever starts for the Saints, makes the clutch play down the stretch. 

This season, Ridder is tied with Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson for most game-winning drives.

PREDICTION: Falcons, 20-17

Carolina Panthers (1-9) at Tennessee Titans (3-7)

Rookie quarterbacks Bryce Young and Will Levis meet for the first time, each seeking his second NFL win. Tennessee's advantage in the trenches should get Levis to two wins first. 

The Panthers defense is a surprising sixth in the league against the pass but struggles to defend the run, ranking 24th. Titans running back Derrick Henry should feast. 

On defense, the line, led by edge Arden Key and tackle Jeffery Simmons, will extend Carolina's offensive misery.

PREDICTION: Titans, 20-13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5)

Tampa's red-zone defense is the best in the league, allowing a touchdown on only 34.4 percent of opponents' drives that make it inside the 20. Whether it can hold the Colts to field goals will dictate the game's outcome; Indy is sixth in red-zone offense, scoring 18 touchdowns in 30 opportunities (60 percent), sixth-best in the league. 

The Colts lean on their run game inside the 20, but the Bucs are one of two teams that haven't allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back this season.

PREDICTION: Buccaneers, 24-23