NFL 2022 MVP odds: A look at the betting market

All 32 teams have officially reported for training camp! NFL season will be here before we know it, and it can't come soon enough.

The last two weeks I dove in to the divisions to find futures and bets worth making. By all means, hop into my author page to scan back through that work.

The next series I'm diving into is the NFL MVP betting market, honing in on a few players worth a wager to win the 2022 Most Valuable Player Award. We will have individual articles for my targets, so today serves as a high-level look at the market.

A panel of 50 writers votes on the MVP at the end of the regular season, with the individual who garners the largest percentage of the vote deemed the winner.

Past Winners: It's a quarterback's award

14 of the past 15 MVP winners have been a quarterback, with the lone exception Adrian Peterson in 2012. Going back further, 19 of the last 22 players to win MVP have been a QB. 

We mention this as a way to whittle down who we'll look at for this award. When it's not a quarterback, it's typically a running back. Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry lead all non-QBs in the futures market, both at +5000 on DraftKings. We'll be removing all non-QBs from our analysis, the numbers don't lie. It's very unlikely Taylor, Henry or any of the positional players bring home the MVP.

There are five current players who have won the award before:

• Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2021, 2021)
• Lamar Jackson (2019)
• Patrick Mahomes (2018)
• Tom Brady (2007, 2010, 2017)
• Matt Ryan (2016)

All five players find themselves in the top 15 for best odds to bring home the 2022 award.

2022 NFL MVP betting odds: Top 15

Odds are updated as of July 26 and courtesy of DraftKings.

1. Josh Allen (+700)
2. Tom Brady (+800)
3. Patrick Mahomes (+900)
4. Aaron Rodgers (+1000)
5. Justin Herbert (+1000)
6. Joe Burrow (+1200)
7. Russell Wilson (+1400)
8. Matthew Stafford (+1500)
9. Dak Prescott (+1600)
10. Jalen Hurts (+2000)
11. Kyler Murray (+2000)
12. Lamar Jackson (+2000)
13. Derek Carr (+2800)
14. Matt Ryan (+3500)
15. Deshaun Watson (+4000)

As it stands, this is the top 15 for NFL MVP. Allen is the favorite, and a fine choice to bring home the honors. It's extremely rare for the MVP to not come from one of the league's top teams, and Buffalo is the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl as we head to August.

After Allen, it's Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow who lead the charge of "new faces" to this award. There are multiple strategies when targeting the winner of the MVP. The rising star is a legitimate one, with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes two recent examples of that coming to fruition.

There has been a rush of the old heads playing at a high level and leading the top team in their conference. Aaron Rodgers would of course be the one in reference here, winner of two straight MVPs. If deploying an approach like that, than it's hard to ignore Tom Brady here. The NFC is wide open and Brady briefly retired. It would be quite the story if he authors a dominant Buccaneers offense, securing homefield advantage, a very real possibility.

We'll be breaking down some of our favorites to win on Yardbarker for the next two weeks, so stay tuned for more to come: the first will drop tomorrow.