NFL betting guide: Dougherty's Week 4 picks and predictions

After a wild first three weeks of the NFL season, we're ready to flip the page to Week 4. There are a number of intriguing matchups on the upcoming slate, so let's dig deeper into the five biggest games of the week and break down how we can attack them from a betting perspective. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday, Sept. 29, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Packers -2.5
Total: 43.5 
Just as we all predicted heading into the season, the Vikings have been the most impressive team in the NFL through three weeks. Minnesota is coming off rather comfortable wins against the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans. Not only does Sam Darnold look reborn with a new team, but Brian Flores' defense ranks first in sacks (16) and second in points per game allowed (10.0).  
The Packers have won back-to-back games with Malik Willis filling in for Jordan Love, cementing Matt LaFleur as an early contender to win Coach of the Year. Love is hoping to return to the field for this crucial divisional matchup.  

Mismatch to exploit: Josh Jacobs vs. Vikings run defense
The Packers have been the most run-heavy team in the NFL through three weeks, and they rank second in yards per rush (5.5). Jordan Mason rushed for 100 yards against the Vikings in Week 2, so take a look at Josh Jacobs to go over his rushing yards prop.

Prediction: Packers 20, Vikings 17

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, Sept. 29, 1 p.m. ET, FOXSpread: Falcons -2.5
Total: 42.5 
The Saints, after two 40-point performances to begin the season, came crashing back to earth with only 12 points and 219 total yards in a sloppy loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. This offense is likely somewhere in between the one we saw in Week 3 and the one we saw in Weeks 1 and 2.  
The Falcons have looked better each week, and they nearly upset the Kansas City Chiefs as 3.5-point underdogs on Sunday Night Football. We still need to see more production from Kirk Cousins and the offense to consider Atlanta a serious contender to win the NFC South. A win this week would go a long way to accomplishing that. 

Mismatch to exploit: Falcons secondary vs. Derek Carr
The Falcons held Patrick Mahomes to only 217 yards passing and Jalen Hurts to 183. This safety duo of Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates will shut down New Orleans' downfield passing attack, so take a look at Carr's passing yards under.  

Prediction: Falcons 24, Saints 20

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Sunday, Sept. 29, 1 p.m. ET, FOXSpread: Eagles -2
Total: 44
The Eagles escaped New Orleans with a three-point win last week, but they left with a ton of injury uncertainty heading into Week 4. DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson are all in danger of missing this game. If all three are ruled out before Sunday, there's no way this spread closes at Eagles -2. 

The Buccaneers jumped out to an impressive 2-0 start just to get trucked by Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos in Week 3. It's hard to determine where this team ranks in the NFC, but this could be a good bounce-back spot against a banged-up offense and an overmatched secondary trying to slow down Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.  

Mismatch to exploit: Saquon Barkley vs. Buccaneers run defense
The Bucs let the Broncos run for 136 yards against them last week, and defensive tackles Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey are both questionable for this week. If neither can suit up, Barkley should fly over his rushing yards prop.

 Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Eagles 21

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, Sept. 29, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBSSpread: Chiefs -7.5
Total: 40
The story of this AFC West battle is injuries, especially on the Chargers' side. Los Angeles will likely be without starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater in Week 3, while Justin Herbert and Joey Bosa also may not be able to play. Oh, and Derwin James won't suit up due to a suspension. That's why the spread has moved all the way out to Chiefs -7.5.
It's fair to question whether the Chiefs deserve to be this big of a favorite on the road, though. Kansas City is 3-0, but it hasn't won a game by more than seven points yet. Mahomes and Travis Kelce are off to slow starts, but Rashee Rice has picked up the slack with 288 receiving yards and two touchdowns.  

Mismatch to exploit: Steve Spagnuolo vs. Chargers beat-up offense
Spagnualo is one of the smartest, most experienced defensive coordinators in the NFL. If the Chargers are without Herbert and both starting tackles, Spagnuolo is going to bring the heat all day. Check out LA's team total under in this one.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Chargers 13

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, Sept. 29, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBCSpread: Ravens -2.5
Total: 46.5
The Ravens avoided a 0-3 start by knocking off the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3, as Derrick Henry rumbled for 151 yards and two touchdowns in the game. Baltimore's rushing offense is firing on all cylinders right now, but the passing game needs to catch up if this team wants to reach its ceiling.

There isn't anything negative to say about Josh Allen and the Bills, which just blew out the Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points. No Stefon Diggs, no problem for this offense. James Cook looks like a star, and Allen is having fun sharing the wealth to a dozen different receiving options. This is a much tougher test against the Ravens, though.

 Mismatch to exploit: Josh Allen vs. Ravens secondary
The Ravens have been fantastic at defending the run this season, but they rank dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (291.7). Allen could be a good look to go over his passing yards and touchdown props.  

Prediction: Ravens 24, Bills 23