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Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

NFL betting trends and takes for the Divisional Round

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 1/18/23

The Divisional Round in the NFL playoffs offers us some of the best quality matchups we'll see all season, and the best part is it's on a continuous cycle. We have four games to take in, two on both Saturday and Sunday, and each offers intriguing trends and takeaways.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

Betting trends

Jacksonville: 9-9 ATS, 9-9 overs

Kansas City: 6-10-1 ATS, 8-9 overs

This game

Spread: Kansas City -8.5

Over/under: 53 points

Initial takes

The Jaguars and Chiefs met on November 13 of this year, a game Kansas City won 27-17 at home. Jacksonville is coming off one of the biggest playoff comebacks in NFL history and has a coach in Doug Pederson who knows what it takes to win in the playoffs.

The Chiefs, however, have the league MVP in Patrick Mahomes and have been to four straight AFC Championships. It's hard to bet against Kansas City here, but they have been one of the NFL's worst teams against the spread this year. We'd consider the Jaguars to cover here in what projects to be a high-scoring game.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Betting trends

New York: 14-4 ATS, 8-9-1 overs

Philadelphia: 8-9 ATS, 10-7 overs

This game

Spread: Philadelphia -7.5

Over/under: 48 points

Initial takes

Philly and New York have met twice this season, with the Eagles winning both games. The first at the beginning of December was a blowout victory, 48-22 for the Birds. The second was in Week 18 with a clearly-ailing Jalen Hurts running a vanilla offense against the Giants backups, scraping together a 22-16 win.

New York has been the best team ATS this season, and Daniel Jones looked good last weekend. This NFC East contest could be a close one, though we do expect the Eagles to win.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

Betting trends

Cincinnati: 12-5 ATS, 7-9-1 overs

Buffalo: 8-8-1 ATS, 7-10 overs

This game

Spread: Buffalo -5

Over/under: 48.5 points

Initial takes

The Bengals and Bills will finally hit the field for a game, after the scary scene took place in Week 17's Monday night game. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen have never played against each other and this is the most anticipated game of the weekend.

Buffalo squeaked by Miami and Cincinnati also had a closer-than-expected outing against Baltimore. We'll chalk that up to facing two divisional rivals and we like the points to come in bunches here.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

Betting trends

Dallas: 11-7 ATS, 9-9 overs

San Francisco: 12-6 ATS, 10-8 overs

This game

Spread: San Francisco -3.5

Over/under: 46 points

Initial takes

These two teams haven't met since December 2020, a game Dallas won 41-33. It's hard to glean much from that one. The Cowboys and Niners both looked good in the Wild Card Round, cruising to victory by double digits.

The two teams are some of the NFL's best ATS, and this projects to be the tightest game of the weekend. The biggest advantage on paper is rest. San Francisco played Saturday afternoon while Dallas played Monday night. That's over two days extra to get the bodies and preparation right. It's hard to not lean San Francisco given that factor.

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