Bills Dawson Knox gets tackled by a couple of 49ers including Ji'Ayir Brown during first half action of their home game against the San Francisco 49ers in Orchard Park on Dec. 1, 2024. Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

NFL Bold Prediction: Bills' TD receptions leader won't be from WR corps in 2025

Originally posted on Buffalo Bills on SI
By Ralph Ventre | Last updated Jul 12, 2025 7:30 PM ET

There's only one player currently on the Buffalo Bills' roster who caught a pass from quarterback Josh Allen prior to the 2022 season.

As the Bills prepare for the 2025 campaign, there's arguably no offensive player who knows Allen better than tight end Dawson Knox. Since being drafted in 2019, Knox has been Buffalo's TE1 and a known close friend to Allen.

While Knox's receiving numbers took a hit from a 2023 wrist injury, and they haven't seemed to recover since Joe Brady took over the offensive coordinator role on a full-time basis, the tight end's ability hasn't gone anywhere. There's reason to believe that Knox's statistical production will increase this season, possibly even to where he becomes the team leader in touchdown receptions.

It seems like an off-the-wall expectation, especially when considering that Knox had only 33 targets and one touchdown over 16 games last year, but there are two facts that show a bounce back is possible.

First, history is on Knox's side as there was a time when he was a serious scoring threat.

Over 30 regular season games spanning 2021 and 2022, Knox made 15 touchdown receptions. Should he return to producing at that pace, the tight end would be in line for 8.5 TD catches in 2025.

With the way Allen spread the ball around in the "everybody eats" offense, the since-departed Mack Hollins was able to lead the Bills with five touchdown receptions last season.

There's also the idea that Allen trusts Knox in the red zone. The tight end, who has six career TD catches in the postseason, found the end zone four years in a row during wildcard round victories (2020-23).

While the lack of usage as a receiver under Brady is a reason for caution, Knox has remained on the field more than any other tight end on the roster. In 2024, Knox logged 61 percent of offensive snaps to Dalton Kincaid's 57 percent during the regular season.

Proving how important he is to the offense as a whole, Knox out-snapped Kincaid by a 44-33 margin in the AFC Championship Game.

He plays a lot. He has a great rapport with Allen. And his single-season career high is 9 touchdown receptions. Hence, it's not crazy to think Knox can lead the Bills in that category this year.