NFL Coaches, Execs, and Scouts Drop Justin Herbert in ESPN’s QB Rankings

That being said, voters didn’t first point to Herbert's lack of playoff success as a reason for his ranking, but instead focused on his situation preventing him from being considered among the elite of the elite.

“The offense he currently plays in is by far the least QB-friendly in terms of the passing game, which doesn't help him,” a veteran NFC personnel evaluator said. “Justin can get there. He has the ability, so it should come in time."

While this evaluator made it clear he understands that Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s run-heavy scheme can limit quarterbacks’ ability to shine as passers, as seen with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens from 2019-2022, he also placed some of the blame on Herbert.

“The players above him [in the top 10] consistently create more off-schedule plays, are more dangerous in the two-minute [drill] and have won in the playoffs," he explained.

Is this analysis entirely accurate? While many of the league’s elite today certainly offer more than Herbert as off-schedule, outside-the-pocket creators, can it really be considered a weakness in Herbert’s game?

Here's one example of why this is a strength of his rather than a weakness. In it, Herbert manages to turn what could have been a disastrous safety into what should have been a modest gain, had the ball been caught.

The ability to stiff-arm the 6-5, 260-pound Carl Granderson and make an accurate throw while being dragged down shows Herbert’s ability to improvise, even if he doesn't rely on that aspect as much as other top quarterbacks.

That shouldn’t necessarily ding Herbert either, however, as many of the top quarterbacks don’t depend on off-schedule throws to succeed. For instance, 37-year-old Matthew Stafford, who ranked one spot higher than Herbert on this list, has mainly relied on winning from the pocket in recent years.

Another part of Herbert’s game that excelled in 2024 was his ability to protect the football. According to ESPN, Herbert's three interceptions on 504 attempts marked the lowest interception rate (0.6%) by any qualified quarterback since Tom Brady in 2016.

While some of this can be attributed to Roman’s scheme, it hasn’t kept the ball out of harm’s way to this extent in the past. With Lamar Jackson running Roman’s system, he never posted an interception percentage that was even twice the amount Herbert did in 2024, with his lowest being 1.5% in 2019.

Referring back to the comment from the anonymous NFC evaluator, the other primary reason he was low on Herbert is because he believes Herbert isn’t dangerous in the two-minute drill. The stats tell a different story, however, as Herbert’s 15 game-winning drives are the most of any quarterback drafted in 2020 or later, per ESPN.

He had two such games just this season, one in Week 16 against a top-ranked Denver Broncos defense and another in Week 11 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Here are two impressive throws from that game against Cincinnati, highlighting Herbert’s live arm and accuracy in a high-pressure situation.

Ultimately, Herbert will need to lead the Chargers on a deep playoff run to be considered among the elite of the elite at his position. He can put up impressive performances during the regular season, but it's clear that won't shape how the league views him. Wins in January, not September, are what people want to see from a player like Herbert. He’s shown he’s a top-tier quarterback with the talent to win these games, but it hasn't yet materialized on the field when given the chance.

In the past, there were complaints that the offensive personnel around Herbert limited his ability to reach the playoffs, let alone win them. However, now that the Chargers have added significant offensive talent through the draft and free agency, it’s time for Herbert to lead his team on a postseason run.