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Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds: Is there a bet to make?

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 5/12/23

Most seasons, Comeback Player of the Year is a wide-open award hard to project a winner. Geno Smith took home the honors this past season, and he wasn't even among the top-12 favorites to win in July.

This season feels quite a bit different, with a heavy favorite and a clear reason why.

2023 Comeback Player of the Year odds

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

Damar Hamlin, Buffalo (-650)
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore (+2500)
Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas (+2500)
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams (+2500)
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami (+2500)
Trey Lance, San Francisco (+2500)
Russell Wilson, Denver (+2500)
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams (+3000)
Mac Jones, New England (+3000)
John Metchie III, Houston (+3000)

Damar Hamlin is the understandable favorite to win this award by season's end. The NFL world stood still on that Monday night Week 17 game between the Bills and Bengals, when defensive back Hamlin collapsed due to cardiac arrest.

It was a scary night, but it's been all good news since, as Hamlin was recently fully cleared to return to playing football. From a human perspective, this is all terrific, and we wish nothing but the best for Hamlin and his family.

From a betting perspective, the only story here is likely that there isn't a story. Hamlin is going to win this award, and rightfully so, should he play even just a handful of games and make an impact for the Buffalo defense.

In a world where Hamlin never suffered a cardiac arrest on the field, there would certainly be a few intriguing candidates to place bets on here.

John Metchie III is the most logical name to consider here under normal circumstances. Metchie missed his entire rookie season after being diagnosed with a form of leukemia last July. It appears Metchie has fought through that diagnosis, equally tremendous news, and the expectation is that the young WR will be playing for the Texans this year. Some may give Metchie a few votes if he comes back and provides a spark for Houston and their new quarterback, CJ Stroud, but it's hard to see anyone else winning this.

There would be some merit to someone like Russell Wilson too, with Sean Payton now in town and tasked with getting the former Super Bowl champion QB back into the form we grew accustomed of seeing. Geno Smith won this award because he came back from basically being a bad quarterback, so the script is there for someone like Wilson to also garner votes.

Ultimately, there isn't a bet to make in this market. We also don't feel comfortable recommending a -650 bet, especially in the futures market. Congratulations to Damar Hamlin on his recovery, and we're happy to hear that the Bills defensive back can resume his playing career in good health.

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