NFL Conference Championship preview and picks

CINCINNATI (12-7) AT KANSAS CITY (14-5), Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

TV: CBS        Line: Kansas City -7

Sure, the football world is all calling last week’s Bills-Chiefs instant classic a de facto Super Bowl. Heck, I felt that way watching it. How could you not? That said, the Bengals certainly won’t come into this game as shrinking violets, nor should they. Burrow and company beat the Chiefs in a game that had real stakes for both teams, and he certainly will come into the game brimming with confidence. That said, Cincinnati must protect him better than they did against the Titans. There is no way that the Bengals will win if Burrow is sacked anywhere near the nine times Tennessee took him down. Burrow is also going to have to match Mahomes touchdown for touchdown, which means Cincinnati is going to have to be sharper in the red zone. Three drives against the Raiders stalled out with field goals, and the Bengals scored just one touchdown against the Titans. That simply won’t be enough against Kansas City. The Bengals have the weapons to do it, no one questions that, but this is their first taste of the big time. Will the moment be too big for Zac Taylor’s team?

Kansas City shouldn’t be here. Can we all agree on that? If Sean McDermott and the Bills had chosen to squib kick after their go-ahead touchdown and had executed said kick well enough to force Kansas City to take even three or four seconds off the clock with a return, the Bills would be hosting the AFC Championship Game. That they aren’t is due to McDermott’s end-of-game coaching, but also Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce’s outrageous offensive brilliance. Against any other team in the league, failing to kick the ball on the ground would have been a summary offense, barely worth a citation. Against the Chiefs, it was a felonious bit of negligence that cost the Bills their season. So that’s what Cincinnati is dealing with, in terms of offensive pyrotechnics. The Bengals know this, of course, which sort of explains the strange way their Week 17 matchup ended, with Cincinnati running out the clock fortuitously before kicking a game-winning field goal as time expired. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown for a reason; they’re near-invincible at home, and with Mahomes having fully put his early-season doldrums behind him, they really just look unstoppable unless the opposition mounts a furious pass rush a la Tampa Bay in last year’s Super Bowl. Even then, the Chiefs were playing backup tackles, and Mahomes was hobbled by bad ankles. Trey Hendrickson will play for the Bengals in this game, but will that be enough?

Look smart to your friends:

-Chase is the first rookie ever with 100+ receiving yards in multiple playoff games and needs just 18 yards for the most-ever by a rookie in postseason history.

-Hill and Kelce garner most of the headlines, and for good reason, but one of the reasons that the Chiefs look so lethal is the emergence of Bryon Pringle. Pringle has a receiving touchdown in both of Kansas City’s playoff games, and three so far this postseason.

The pick: Chiefs 38 Bengals 28

SAN FRANCISCO (12-7) AT LOS ANGELES (14-5), Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: FOX        Line: Los Angeles -3.5

Can the 49ers really go 3-for-3 against the Rams this year? They’ve had Los Angeles’ number so far, and despite the Rams’ star-studded lineup, there will be nothing resembling a fear factor here. On paper, this looks like the more even of the two championship games. San Francisco’s big task will be slowing down Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and the rest of Los Angeles’ defense. The key to that effort will be having left tackle Trent Williams around. Williams is arguably the best offensive lineman in the entire NFL, and he’s dealing with an ankle injury. As of this writing, he still hasn’t practiced this week, but reading between the lines suggests that the Niners are optimistic that he’ll be able to play. If he does, Kyle Shanahan will be able to scheme up all manner of odd wrinkles, like sending Williams in motion and using him as a fullback. His presence makes everything easier for San Francisco, and could absolutely mean the difference between a win and a loss. What else might be the pivot point between victory and defeat? Jimmy Garoppolo’s play, of course. His receivers dropped good throws early, and he made two or three big passes late, but in between, it was a roller-coaster ride against the Packers, complete with “hold your breath” throws to the numbers, and generally skittish-looking play. If good Garoppolo shows up, the Niners could make the Rams look bad. If not…I don’t think I need to say anymore.

In some ways, Los Angeles had the most impressive win of any team last weekend, which is quite the statement considering two underdogs went on the road and upset the top seed in each conference, and the Chiefs won a game where they received a kickoff while trailing with 13 seconds left. The Rams’ challenge was different; they battered Brady and Tampa Bay for most of the game, then saw it all start to slip away in a flurry of sloppy play and turnovers. Be honest with yourself; when the Buccaneers came all the way back to tie the game, you assumed it was going to be another historic Brady comeback, a Tampa companion to his Super Bowl LI stunner against the Falcons. Then, the strangest thing happened. Matthew Stafford did what virtually no other opposing quarterbacks not named Eli Manning or Nick Foles have managed to do, and counterpunched beautifully, with two throws to Cooper Kupp, including a picture-perfect 44-yard bomb, setting up a winning field goal as time expired. The sequence showed that Stafford is playing with the kind of supreme confidence that won’t be shaken by several disastrous sequences. He’s giving the Rams the kind of play they hoped for when they swung a blockbuster deal with Detroit to land him and get Jared Goff out of town, and it feels like a very safe bet that the Rams wouldn’t be here, and maybe wouldn’t have made the playoffs at all, if Goff was still under center. Stafford has four touchdown passes, a touchdown run, and no interceptions in these playoffs. He’s two wins away from a career-defining moment. Will he rise to this challenge?

Look smart to your friends:

-Defensive lineman Arik Armstead might be the X-factor for San Francisco’s defense. He had two sacks against Green Bay last week, has five in five career playoff games, and had 2.5 sacks against the Rams in Week 18.

-Von Miller has been a playoff monster, logging 8.5 sacks and 9 tackles for loss in 9 career playoff games. He also had a sack, forced fumble, and fumble recovery in Los Angeles’ win over Tampa Bay last week.

The pick: Rams 30 49ers 23