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NFL Data Expert Shares Eyebrow-Raising Observation on BTJ’s Fantasy Projection
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (7) answers questions from the media during the 10th organized team activity at Miller Electric Center Wednesday, June 4, 2025 in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Brian Thomas burst onto the NFL scene in 2024 with 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns on 87 receptions. Cynthia Frelund thinks he can do a lot better.

“I love the opportunity for Brian Thomas Jr. to take an even bigger step forward,” the NFL’s data expert said on Monday’s edition of Good Morning Football. “He was already awesome last season, but 10 touchdowns, I think that's kind of the floor.”

The floor? Well, if Thomas can improve on his 10 touchdown receptions, he’ll be in elite territory in Jaguars history. Only Allen Robinson (14 in 2015) has recorded more touchdown catches in a single season. Allen Robinson (2015), Marcedes Lewis (2010) and Reggie Lewis (2007) also posted 10.

And because she thinks he can immediately improve that number, especially playing with Trevor Lawrence over a full season, Frelund ranked Thomas as her sixth-most dangerous fantasy wide receiver.

“So, I'm looking at Brian Thomas Jr. here,” she said, “and I'm thinking, Jags fans, I know you have a lot to be excited about, but Brian Thomas Jr., he's probably my favorite one to target for this offense in general.”

That’s quite a statement considering the Jaguars selected the draft’s most dynamic player in wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter. If Thomas is a favorite target among fantasy managers, and that decision pays dividends at year’s end, this figures to be a storybook season in Jacksonville.

Only two players in Jaguars history have recorded more single-season receiving yards than Thomas: Jimmy Smith (1,636 in 1999, 1,373 in 2001 and 1,374 in 1997) and Robinson (1,400 in 2015).

Since the 1970 league merger, his 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdown catches each were the seventh-most by a rookie, and his 14.7 yards per reception ranked fourth in that span (minimum 75 receptions). Thomas joined Odell Beckham, Ja’Marr Chase and Randy Moss as the fourth rookie since the merger to reach 1,200 receiving yards and double-digit touchdown catches.

Thomas also joined Chase, Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown as one of four NFL players last season to hit those marks. However, Thomas was the only member of that quartet who had to play with multiple starting quarterbacks.

Get breaking Duval news as it happens, available by following @JaguarsOnSI and @_John_Shipley on X (Twitter). And, share your thoughts on Brian Thomas Jr. by visiting our Facebook page, here.


This article first appeared on Jacksonville Jaguars on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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