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NFL Draft bets: How to cash in on the Titans QB rumors, no matter who they take
Doug Engle / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL Draft bets: How to cash in on the Titans QB rumors, no matter who they take

By Griffin Carroll  |  Last updated 4/12/23

It's an endless stream of rumors in the NFL in the weeks leading up to the Draft, and the current report making the rounds is to keep an eye on the Tennessee Titans trading up to draft a quarterback.

We've covered the quarterback market in detail here, with seemingly four quarterbacks a lock to go inside the top 10. With Tennessee currently set to pick 11th, a trade up is a logical assumption should they be looking to add a passer.

Mel Kiper said in his latest mock draft that Tennessee has its eyes on one of the top QB prospects, and projected a move up to the third spot to select Florida's Anthony Richardson.

From a team-building perspective, the Titans' need for a new quarterback makes sense. Ryan Tannehill is 34 years old and has dealt with injury concerns the past few years, and Malik Willis, taken in the third round last year, struggled when he saw the field. The trade of AJ Brown last season indicated that Tennessee is acknowledging that they may need to retool and reload before having a chance to compete again in the AFC.

Their conference is all the more reason to make an aggressive move up the Draft if they're sold on a quarterback prospect. The AFC is loaded with elite — and more importantly, young — QB talent. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence all made the postseason last year and figure to remain competitive stalwarts for the next decade.

Tennessee is committing to mediocrity if they don't take a chance on a young QB, which is to say these rumors feel like something we can trust.

Rumors impacting the betting market

The betting market quickly jumped on the latest rumors surrounding Tennessee's desire for a new passer. The Titans are now the favorites to draft Anthony Richardson, at +190 on DraftKings.

The favorites to draft Richardson (via DK)

  1. Titans (+190)
  2. Colts (+200)
  3. Raiders (+400)
  4. Seahawks (+1000)
  5. Ravens (+1500)

Tennessee is going to have to move up to get its guy, if Richardson is indeed their target. At 11, there are quite a few teams above them that could take a quarterback (beyond the first two picks, which we know will be quarterbacks). The Colts, Raiders and Falcons all lack an answer at quarterback. The Seahawks and Lions should be considering taking a passer as well to develop for a year behind their current starters.

We're not here to discuss the compensation for such a trade up. It would be steep and it's the type of move that can make or break an organization and front office. 

How to approach this from a betting perspective

To me, the better approach is not to bet that the Titans take Richardson at +190, but rather that they go for a quarterback with their first pick.

We could sit here and agree that yes, Tennessee should take a quarterback and make moves to acquire one. Wouldn't it be a shame to correctly project that outcome, but hitch our wagon to a single player? Bryce Young and CJ Stroud will be off the board, but Richardson and Will Levis both remain. Levis is a very tantalizing prospect in his own right. He has ideal size, experience in a pro-style offense, and better college production.

Should Levis start to slide, it becomes more manageable for Tennessee to move up and grab themselves a shiny new quarterback. 

Betting odds for the position of Tennessee's first pick (via FD)

  1. Offensive lineman (+100)
  2. Quarterback (+125)
  3. Defensive lineman (+900)
  4. Wide receiver (+1000)
  5. Cornerback (+2500)

If it ends up being Richardson, we lose a bit of hypothetical money on the plus odds, but we also win the bet. A bet on the Titans taking a QB first extends our pool of players by one, which could make all the difference.

Whether it's Richardson or Levis, it seems clear Tennessee is calling around and looking to see if a trade up in this year's draft is plausible. They're smart to do so, and we'll bet they pull it off at plus-money.

Betting: Titans to take QB first (+125 FanDuel)

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