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NFL Draft bets: Who will emerge as top tight end in this year's class?
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Draft bets: Who will emerge as top tight end in this year's class?

When we last checked into the tight end draft market, it was a near even-split for who would be the first off the board between Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid. We liked Mayer then, but it's clear the market is now favoring Kincaid.

Once +150 to be the first TE selected, Utah's Kincaid is -150 on DraftKings and -140 on FanDuel. While Notre Dame's Michael Mayer is lauded as the more complete tight end, there's reason for Kincaid's rise, and we can get behind it.

Dalton Kincaid is the favorite to be drafted inside the Top 20

Mayer had solid production at Notre Dame, and has been described as a tight end that can be equally deployed as a blocker and a safety valve in the passing game.

20 years ago, Mayer's balance likely makes him the more appealing prospect, but the times have changed in the NFL.

The passing game is king, and in slots Kincaid, a two-time AP All-American. Kincaid is an offensive weapon who has the size to play outside and in the slot, and not just in-line as your typical TE. Last season with Utah, Kincaid caught 70 balls for 890 yards and eight touchdowns.

PFF has Kincaid as their 15th-ranked prospect, 13 spots higher than Michael Mayer. CBS Sports has Kincaid ranked two slots higher than Mayer, and Mel Kiper's most recent mock draft projected Kincaid to the Packers at No. 15 and Mayer to the Cowboys at No. 26.

Two potential factors moving the market

Teams don't look at the tight end position like they used to. Gone are the days of your TE needing to be an elite blocker; just being serviceable can be enough to get by, should you have the offensive playmaking abilities to make up for it.

Kincaid's athleticism and route-running ability trump Mayer's, and it's for this reason he's flipped to the favorite. Teams are looking at tight ends like Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Darren Waller, TJ Hockenson, Dallas Goedert and the now-retired Rob Gronkowski and realizing what a strong route-running and playmaking tight end can do for an offense.

It unlocks a new level, and a pick of Kincaid is chasing that team-building philosophy.

A secondary reason that someone of Kincaid's skillset would go before Mayer is the lack of high-end WR talent in this year's class. Most mock drafts recently have just two or three wide receivers going in Round 1, and the current over/under for total WRs taken in the first round is 4.5, with the odds heavily favoring the under (-330).

Teams desperate for pass catchers may have to turn to Kincaid, who is a more than capable consolation prize, if looking to secure some new weapons for their offense and quarterback. 

At -140 on FanDuel, we may not have a better price on Kincaid going before Mayer than we do right now. The market is speaking to us, will you be listening?

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