NFL Draft odds and best bets: Who will select Bijan Robinson?

You can't build a winning football team around a running back only, you just can't. Now the Tennessee Titans may have something to say about that, but we also haven't seen Derrick Henry in a Super Bowl, have we?

We make this point to highlight our first main focus on betting this market: project Robinson to a contender. A team like Atlanta (+750) or Tampa Bay (+1600) is not a star running back away from competitiveness. 

Detroit and Philadelphia both have two first round selections, which helps to explain why they're near the top of the board. While we don't think either will take Robinson within the top 10, that premium pick gives them a bit more leeway to make a luxury selection with their next pick. For the Lions that would be No. 18, and the Eagles second pick is down at No. 30.

We understand why Philadelphia is the betting favorite here. Running back Miles Sanders is a free agent and unlikely to garner a second contract with the team. They are fresh off a Super Bowl loss and bringing back the entirety of a loaded offensive group. Plopping a talent like Robinson next to Jalen Hurts forms a complete offense that would be hard to stop.

Our issue there is the philosophical way we've seen the Eagles build their team. They do not invest premium resources in the running back position, instead opting for the later rounds of the draft to grab a runner or veterans on cheap deals. Don't bet Philly here.

As for the Lions, they do offer some merit here. Detroit is a team on the rise. They finished 2022 strong and have a strong offensive line and WR room in place. With Jamaal Williams a free agent, they may be looking to pair another strong running back with D'Andre Swift. However, the Lions defense feels likely to be their focus, with a dark-horse potential that they take a quarterback with one of their two first rounders to sit under Jared Goff for a season. With more pressing needs, skip the Lions on this bet.

The teams to bet

Buffalo (+450)

The Bills currently own the 27th pick in the NFL Draft, right around the sweet spot for Robinson to likely be taken.

Buffalo has the ideal makeup for this type of selection. Their championship window is in danger of closing rapidly with Josh Allen's contract hitting the books, and after failing to make the AFC Championship in back-to-back seasons, the pressure is one to make this coming season the year.

The Bills have some needs along the offensive line, but that seems like an area they can address in free agency. The Buffalo defense has been one of the league's best, and it's a group that Buffalo has been investing in through the draft for the past few seasons.

Adding a talent like Robinson to the Buffalo backfield to replace pending free agent Devin Singletary could be a great way to alleviate Allen's need to put the offense on his back, bringing them some key offensive balance.

Your afforded a chance at a luxury pick like this when your roster is one of the most well-balanced units in football. Buffalo needs to usurp Kansas City and Cincinnati and get to the Super Bowl. This helps them do just that.
 
Cincinnati (+2000)

The Bengals fit the exact same makeup as Buffalo: a team that is in a position to go all-in right now. Cincinnati has the pick directly after the Bills. Joe Burrow is still on his rookie contract for now, and Cincinnati is afforded a chance to put money elsewhere prior to handing out huge money to their franchise passer.

Murmurs are growing that Joe Mixon may end up being let go by the Bengals, currently on the books for around $10 million this season. A Mixon release would free up $7 million in cap space for Cincinnati, and it appears this move is coming.

Should it, there's a natural fit for Robinson to slot in to what is a loaded passing offense and make this team nearly unstoppable when they have the football. With a retooled offensive line already in place, Cincy can put their money this offseason towards the defensive side of the football.

Robinson makes this a scary team as the Bengals look to return to the Super Bowl after a 2022 defeat to the Los Angeles Rams.

Both teams are great bets, and we love the value on Cincinnati at+2000.