NFL futures: Odds and a bet on who will lead league in passing this season

If you're like us, you may have had a few moments of late day-dreaming about the start of NFL. Few bets feel as sweet as NFL player props (in my book anyway), and to scratch that itch, we're diving into some of the season-long markets made available to bettors.

One such market is the league leaders for various statistical categories. We begin our path through the market with the quarterbacks favored to lead the league in passing yardage this season.

Favorites to lead NFL in Passing Yards

Regular season only, odds courtesy of DraftKings.

1. Patrick Mahomes (+500)
2. C.J. Stroud (+600)
3. Dak Prescott (+650)
4. Jared Goff (+800)
5. Tua Tagovailoa (+800)
6. Joe Burrow (+850)
7. Matthew Stafford (+1400)
8. Kirk Cousins (+1400)
9. Jordan Love (+1600)
10. Josh Allen (+1800)

Last season, it was Miami's Tua Tagovailoa leading the NFL in passing with 4,624 yards despite ranking ninth in total attempts. His league-leading season was backed by a pair of WRs making explosive plays on the regular, fueling an 8.3 yards/pass attempt mark that was second among qualifying passers behind Brock Purdy.

There are a lot of intriguing names on this list, and even beyond the top 10, that offer us some value for this season.

Our favorite bet(s)

Joe Burrow (+850)

We have gone on record a few times already that we're expecting a bounce-back season from the Cincinnati Bengals, and that will start with Joe Burrow. Burrow went into last season with an injury that impacted his effectiveness for the first month and a half, and then he was forced to miss the final seven games of the year.

A year removed from those injuries, we're expecting to see a Burrow who was fifth and sixth in the NFL in passing over the past two seasons.

Even despite Burrow's injuries and the presence of backup QBs, Cincinnati still ranked second in passing play percentage last season.

There is an emphasis on throwing the football for the Bengals, which is easily explained when you consider they have Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the outside. If Burrow is healthy (always the caveat with bets like this), he should be in the mix by season's end simply based on volume.

Long shot: Aaron Rodgers (+2200)

Aaron Rodgers was a betting darling this time last season, but his market has since cooled as the 40-year-old battles back from an Achilles injury that cost him his entire 2023. 

This could be a market over-correction, as Rodgers was one of the favorites for league-leading honors this time last year. Despite a season of horrible quarterback play, New York still preferred to pass, sitting fourth in passing play percentage last season.

The Jets remain "all-in" with Rodgers at the helm, and to maximize this brief window, they need to let Rodgers do what he does best: throw the football. At 22-1, he could be worth a small bet to lead the league in passing this season.

Age is but a number: ask Tom Brady and his league-leading 5,316 yards back in 2021.