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Running back Derrick Henry. Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL futures: OPOY odds for running backs on the move

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 3/13/24

The early theme of this year's NFL free agency has been the movement among the running back position. At first glance it seems that nearly 10 rushers have switched teams, and some in particular find themselves in strong positions for success.

Are any worth a bet in the futures market? We go under the hood with a few of the notable names and their odds to bring home Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2024-25. Five running backs have won this award over the past 12 seasons.

Saquon Barkley: +2000 to win OPOY

Of the running back faces in new places, it's Saquon Barkley of the Eagles who offers us the best odds. His 20-1 price win Offensive Player of the Year this upcoming season is sixth-best in the NFL. So, can he do it?

D'Andre Swift finished fifth in the NFL last year in rushing yards, but he wasn't often used in the passing game, which is going to be a prerequisite to win this award as an RB. The lack of running back usage in the passing game was a big talking point in Philadelphia, and one of the reasons offensive coordinator Brian Johnson was shown the door. Barkley has a real chance to break 1500+ total yards if he stays healthy, but the presence of Jalen Hurts to vulture touchdowns in close is going to hurt his case here.

Derrick Henry: +5000 to win OPOY

Speaking of the presence of mobile quarterbacks, we're not too sold on Derrick Henry here having a chance playing alongside Lamar Jackson. We could certainly see a world where Henry punches in 15+ touchdowns, but Jackson is going to siphon off rushing yards that might make it hard to give Henry the nod as the most impactful player on the Baltimore offense.

Going in his favor here is that the Ravens figure to be one of the NFL's best next year, but still, it's hard to see a path here for another OPOY win for King Henry.

Aaron Jones: +7500 to win OPOY

Aaron Jones is an interesting case, as he offers some terrific dual-threat ability out of the backfield, but he may be better suited as a guy worth betting on when he faces the Packers twice a season rather than a real chance to win an award of this nature. Minnesota could be looking at a tough season upcoming if indeed they proceed with Sam Darnold at quarterback.

Joe Mixon: +7500 to win OPOY

Joe Mixon figures to be a focal point on the Houston Texans this season, and Houston is most definitely a team we'll be investing in to have a big year in 2024. The potential concern is that C.J. Stroud commands so much of the offensive output that Mixon will be over-shadowed as more of a complementary piece for Houston. Love the fit, hate a bet on him in this market.

Josh Jacobs: +12000 to win OPOY

Bringing up the rear of the names we'd like to highlight is Josh Jacobs, and he's actually the name we don't hate a tiny sprinkle on. At 120-1, consider Jacobs to win OPOY worth a cup of coffee.

Jacobs is just two years removed from over 2000+ total yards from scrimmage, which propelled him to fifth in Offensive Player of the Year voting. That was even with his Raiders sitting at just 6-11.

Jacobs joins an upstart Packers team where he will be the lead back, and he has receiving chops to support a massive statistical campaign. Jacobs ranked 11th in yards per catch among RBs last season despite playing just 13 games, and the hope is that his rushing efficiency picks back up on a better offense.

Of these names on new offenses, Jacobs is the one that stands out at this juncture. Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson are the three favorites to win as of March 13.

Our favorite value bet: Josh Jacobs (+12000)

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