Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL futures: Trevor Lawrence is a good bet to lead league in passing

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 8/28/23

We're so close to NFL kicking off. We've touched on quite a few markets up to this point, and my attention has started turning to Week 1 lines and players to keep an eye on. While that research is underway, there remains futures value and plays I'd like to invest in for the entire season.

One such market is "Most Passing Yards." I finally was able to take stock of 2022 and look to the secondaries who struggled the most to aid my Week 1 looks. I dove at it in two ways: averaging some of the more notable website rankings, and bringing in more standard metrics like yards allowed per pass attempt. Obviously things change in an offseason, and I opted to focus on the bad defenses last year that seemingly didn't do enough to remedy things for 2023.

If you're interested in that full group, I wrote about it here. Anyway, I say all the above because I've found a few new angles for the most passing yards market, that being: how often do certain QBs get to face these weak secondaries? One such division popped up in full: the AFC South. And only one such quarterback in this division has the pedigree and weapons to take advantage.

Trevor Lawrence: +1800 to lead NFL in passing yards (DraftKings)

All three secondaries of Houston, Tennessee and Indianapolis figure to be among the league's worst in 2023. Right off the bat, Lawrence is gifted six games against defenses unlikely to slow him down. Few quarterbacks can claim that scheduling quirk.

Last season, Lawrence was seventh in attempts and ninth in yards, throwing for 4,113 yards. That was a jump of 472 from his rookie season, and now the Jaguars QB enters Year Three, and the second year with Doug Pederson.

It's easy to imagine Lawrence taking another leap here for Jacksonville, and it certainly helps that his pass-catchers are as loaded as they've ever been. Calvin Ridley joins a core that includes Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram. This is an exciting offense, Lawrence is establishing himself as a top-10 NFL quarterback, and he has a softer schedule than most that favors passing success.

At +1800, this is worth a sprinkle as we near the 2023 season.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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