NFL is due for a ‘worst-to-first’ team in 2025: Vrabel’s Patriots rising, Niners rebound, and 6 other paths to divisions flipping

One of the most beautiful things about the NFL is the parody of league. Unlike in some other major sports, being a bottom dweller doesn’t have to last for long. And when you’re on top, you best savor it before you’re caught up to.

Most years, we see a team rise all the way up or fall all the way down the ladder in a single season. It’s an offseason tradition: try to identify this year’s “worst-to-first” team. Of the eight last place finishers from each division, history tells us that one is likely to make the leap in a single offseason and win it this year.

Since the 2002 divisional re-alignment, 25 teams have gone worst-to-first. 2024, 2019, and 2014 are the only seasons that had no such team. And even then, we saw teams like the 2024 Commanders go worst-to-wildcard, making the NFC Championship game one year removed from making the 2nd overall pick.

With that history in mind, let’s take a look at the teams trying to make that jump in 2025:

AFC South

Using the odds from DraftKings, the Titans are unsurprisingly the distant 4th place odds to win the AFC South at +650. As is the case with any team who adds a high-level QB to the mix, Tennessee has better historical odds than most to make such a leap. It will take Cam Ward having a Daniels/Stroud-esque rookie season, and probably some help from the Texans and Jaguars finding a way to underachieve once again.

AFC North

The Cleveland Browns continue to have a brutal road to a division title with Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and the perennially competitive Steelers in their way. That’s why they sit at +3000 odds, requiring a true miracle to make the leap. Unless Shedeur Sanders turns into a vengeful juggernaut somehow, I don’t see how this could possibly happen.

AFC East

The now Mike Vrabel-led New England Patriots are one of two teams who finished last in 2024 but have better than last-place odds to win their division in 2025. After a significant coaching upgrade and a promising rookie campaign from Drake Maye, they’re a short +475 to win the AFC East behind only the Buffalo Bills. Unseating Buffalo would take some dramatic underachieving from Josh Allen & Co, but it’s not impossible.

AFC West

The AFC West is a nightmare for the Las Vegas Raiders. They’ve done a very good job in raising their floor by adding Coach Pete Carrol and trading for QB Geno Smith, but their odds remain a distant 4th at +1700 because of who is in their way: Mahomes/Reid, Herbert/Harbaugh, and even Payton/Nix.

NFC North

The Chicago Bears have a strong case to be this year’s worst-to-first team on paper. Their roster is much improved over the past two offseasons. They added the most sough-after coach of the past couple offseasons in Ben Johnson. And they have the most highly-touted QB prospect of the past couple years in Caleb Williams, heading into Year 2. But unfortunately for them, they live in a juggernaut division. Once you remember the Lions, Packers, and Vikings exist, their path becomes much harder to fathom. They have pretty short odds at +425, but that’s still 4th-best in the division.

NFC East

There’s not much to say about the New York Giants’ chances in the NFC East, which have been hung at +1900. Russell Wilson and Jaxson Dart aren’t getting them past the Eagles, Commanders, and Cowboys this year.

NFC South

The New Orleans Saints odds to win the South were already a distant +1000 before the announcement Saturday morning that QB Derek Carr is retiring. With rookie QB Tyler Shough and 2nd Year QB Spencer Rattler now set to battle in camp, I’d imagine their odds get even longer. It’s not like anybody besides the Buccaneers is a particularly difficult opponent. But the Saints have a lot of work to do before they’re set to make a jump.

NFC West

Finally, the NFC West has perhaps the most surprising odds of any division. The institutional respect for 2024’s last place team, the San Francisco 49ers, remains strong despite their rocky year. They have the best odds in the division to win it, hung at +145. Despite real competition from the Rams and Cardinals, Vegas expects Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy to bounce back in a big way.