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NFL lotto ticket parlay for Week 9: $10 to win $3,172.88
It's been a few weeks since we've attacked the NFL Sunday slate with a lotto ticket parlay, and Week 9 feels like a tremendous time to take such a shot. Bear in mind, these are longshots and should be bet with care. Go light on any such wager, but I for one am loving some of these looks for Sunday.
You've been warned, there may be some unique names on this list. Follow along if you vibe with the reads and let's have us another Sunday to remember!
Leg 1: Nico Collins 100+ receiving yards
I absolutely love Nico Collins on Sunday. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most 20+ yard passes this season and the seventh-most receptions per game to wide receivers, both of which suggest a big game is coming for one of these Houston Texans wide receivers.
Collins is no-doubt-about-it CJ Stroud's top weapon in the passing game, and that's a beautiful role to have against this Buccaneers secondary. Four of the seven WR1s to see Tampa this season have gone for 100+.
In three home games this year, Collins has finished with yardage totals of 146, 168 and 80. I already bet his 70+ yards straight, but I like moving him up here to 100+ to help us take a big shot.
Leg 2: Alvin Kamara 60+ receiving yards
Here's another guy I already bet on straight, down at 32.5 yards. Spoiler alert: I've bet all these guys straight in some form, because I believe in them.
Over the past three weeks, Kamara is averaging 59.33 receiving yards per game, seeing totals of 91 and 51 the past two games. By all means, move him down to 50+ if you want, I like the value here on 60 or more.
The reason being is his opponent: the Chicago Bears. Chicago is allowing the fifth-most receptions to running backs and the most receiving yards per game to the position.
Just last week, Austin Ekeler, a very similar comp to Kamara, hauled in seven catches for 94 yards against this defense.
Leg 3: Dalton Kincaid 70+ receiving yards
We may have to wait until Sunday night to cash this lotto, so I hope you can be a bit patient. I love me a big Dalton Kincaid game this weekend. I bet him to hit 50+ yards.
Since Dawson Knox went down, Kincaid has popped, showing why he was a first-round pick this past April. He's been targeted 15 times in the last two games, turning that volume into 75- and 65-yard games.
Now he plays the Bengals, a vulnerable secondary that is allowing the fifth-most receptions and the fourth-most yards per game to the tight end position.
Last week, George Kittle caught nine passes for 145 yards against Cincinnati. It's Kincaid's turn to get in on the fun.
Leg 4: Demario Douglas 60+ receiving yards
I'll be honest, this feels sadistic, and I don't blame you if you have no idea who Demario Douglas is. He's on the Patriots, by the way. Kendrick Bourne tore his ACL, paving the way for the rookie Douglas to potentially slip in as the top wide receiver in New England.
Now, that role is typically not very prestigious, but we can't ignore how bad this Washington secondary is. The Commanders have allowed the second-most 20+ yard passes per game, the third-highest yards per pass attempt and the fourth-most passing yards per game.
WRs have torched Washington all season. AJ Brown (130) and DeVonta Smith (99) popped last week. Drake London (125), DJ Moore (215), Brown (175), and Stefon Diggs (111) have all had monster games against this defense.
Douglas has 13 targets over the past two games. He's going to get looks, and it could take just a few for him to break off a big play.
So that does it, four legs. A $10 bet using the DraftKings' parlay boost gives us some juicy odds at +31628. Good luck this weekend!
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
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