NFL Luck Rankings 2024 primer: How to use Action Network’s predictive model

What Are the NFL Luck Rankings?

Our Luck Rankings use a metric we call Luck%, which aims to represent the win-probability difference between a team's on-field performance (as measured through play-by-play data) and its actual winning percentage.

We do this through our Expected Score metric, which identifies the average score of a game between two teams if replayed infinitely while facing the same game situations it encountered.

As an example, let's say the Philadelphia Eagles have fourth-and-goal on the Washington Commanders' 1-yard line. If we were to replay this scenario a million times, the Eagles are likely to punch the ball into the end zone quite a bit. But there's also a chance they don't.

The average expected score of this play is around 4.5 points for two average teams. So when the Eagles score, they come in above expectation, and when they don't, they're below expectation. The specific expectation is adjusted for each offensive and defensive strength on that specific day.

Do this for every play of the game, and we can come up with an Expected Score for the game, which in turn gives us an expected win probability for each team in that game.

By comparing all 32 teams' Expected Scores to their actual results, we can figure out which teams have been lucky or unlucky through the Luck% metric. We can then rank them by Luck% from 1-32 to get our Luck Rankings.

Betting Totals Using Luck Rankings

Our Expected Score metric can also be used to bet totals.

By looking at the combined effect of how Team A's offense and Team B's defense have fared, and the same for when Team B is in possession, we can determine if the teams have combined to score + allow points more or less than expected in their previous games.

If teams combine to score + allow more than expected, it's reasonable to believe regression would eventually set in and these teams would trend toward the under if bookmakers are setting the lines too high based on actual scores rather than expected scores. The opposite is true if teams have scored and allowed fewer points than expected.

When two teams play, the difference between the combined Expected Score per game and the combined actual score per game is what we call a Luck Total. For Luck Totals, we use the following criteria:

1. A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
2. A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
3. A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.

In other words, at any point in Week 4 or later, if there is a Luck Total off by at least 10 points in either direction, our Luck Rankings have identified this as a bet on the total in the corresponding direction.

For unders, this threshold is actually lower and kicks in earlier — likely because the public tends to prefer betting overs, which artificially inflates totals. Thus, at any point from Week 3 or later if the Luck Total is below -5, our Luck Rankings have identified this as a bet on the under.

Similar to the Luck Gap for sides, later in the season the Luck Total threshold lowers for overs as we have more data.

NFL Luck Rankings in the Playoffs

While our records for Luck Rankings are all graded on regular-season bets from Week 2 to the penultimate week of the regular season (the final week presents motivation challenges as some teams rest players while others don't), we can also use Luck Rankings to bet the NFL playoffs.

There's no change to the criteria for betting sides. However, since the playoffs are even deeper into the year, the Luck Total thresholds narrow even further.

In the playoffs:

• Luck Totals of +1 or higher are 11-6 (64.3%) to the over
• Luck Totals of -1 or lower are 24-8 (75%) to the under

That makes Luck Totals 35-14 (71.4%) against closing totals in the playoffs.

NFL Luck Ranking Content for 2024

We'll have a ton of content in 2024 for our NFL Luck Rankings as part of our Action Network Pro subscription, including:

• Tuesday: Updated Luck Rankings.
• Wednesday: Luck Ranking matchup previews in which we anticipate line movement to determine if we want to make an early bet on a game
• Saturday-Sunday: Breakdowns of luck-based bets

Sometime after Week 6, we'll also use Luck Rankings combined with strength of schedule to bet win totals for the remainder of the season.

And every Sunday before kickoff, Nick Giffen provide my top three Luck-Based Bets, which will go beyond just sides and totals to include other player and game props that stem from our Luck Rankings.

Follow along with us this season, and good luck with your bets!