NFL MVP Odds With Solid Value Before the NFL Draft

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has the second most likely odds to win MVP at +800 behind Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. This came even after Allen lost his number one target Stefon Diggs via Trade. 

After another postseason exit at the hands of the Chiefs, the Bills will be once again looking to get over the AFC championship hurdle. This year expectations will be lower after multiple key players will not be returning due to salary cap issues. 

At +800 Allen is a near favorite, however, there is still value because the Bills will add to their playmakers to their offense through the draft by either selecting a player or trading their picks. Adding young receivers with potential will significantly benefit Allen. The narrative that Josh Allen is elevating a young group of receivers despite all of the Bills’ departures will captivate MVP voters. This line will be closer to +650 by Week 1 and could be even lower during the season if the Bills have a hot start. 

Middle of the Pack Justin Herbert at +1400

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert finds himself in the middle tier of MVP odds. Similar to  Allen, Herbert also lost his top target this offseason when Keenan Allen was traded to the Chicago Bears. The Chargers will also have a new head coach next season after hiring former San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh this offseason.

In the past, we’ve seen NFL quarterbacks excel under Jim Harbaugh. During his time in San Francisco, both Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick exceeded expectations and picked up the Harbaugh system quickly. 

The Los Angeles Chargers currently hold the fifth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and are expected to add a top playmaker. The three most common players being selected in mock drafts by the Chargers are LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers, Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze, and Georgia Tight End Brock Bowers. With the hype of a young new prospect and an off-season of growth under Harbaugh, Herbert’s odds will be closer to +1000 by Week 1.

Longshot Kyler Murray at +5000

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray looks to lead a hungry group that could be the NFL’s surprise team in 2024. Murray missed nine games a season ago due to recovering from a torn ACL in 2022. Once Murray returned to the lineup the Cardinals surprised the rest of the league with how competitive they were despite a subpar roster.

The Cardinals currently hold the fourth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, putting them in prime position to draft generational wide receiver prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. The rest of the Cardinals’ skill group also has some talent. Tight end Trey McBride finished the 2023 season strong and is a breakout candidate in 2024. Running back James Conner looks to continue to build off of his first 1000-yard campaign in 2023.

With how head coach Jonathan Gannon has this squad bought in, the Cardinals can be a real surprise in 2024, similar to what we saw out of the Texans a season ago. We have seen Kyler Murray in MVP conversations before, and with a favorable schedule, young skill group, and wide-open NFC, I can see Murray jumping right back into the MVP race in 2024. 

Odds provided via FanDuel Sportsbook.