NFL picks: Week 12

Detroit plays its traditional Thanksgiving showcase against a Bears team that has won four straight. Chicago is on especially short rest after its Sunday night win vs. Minnesota, and it's worth noting the Bears are just 2-2 on the road. The Lions are coming off a big win vs. Carolina and have won four of their last five games on Thanksgiving.

Washington won the first meeting 20-17 but is now without Alex Smith, and the team has a host of other injuries. Still, Colt McCoy has proved serviceable under center, and it's worth noting that Dallas has won only one game by more than seven points this season.

Thanksgiving will be capped off with the hottest team in football, New Orleans, facing a reeling Atlanta squad that has lost two straight and is allowing 27.6 points per game, fourth most in football. The Falcons stayed within striking distance in a 43-37 defeat vs. the Saints in Week 3, but going on the road to New Orleans is a different experience.

Rookie Josh Allen is expected to return this week against a frustrated Jags squad that's likely out of the playoff picture after losing to Pittsburgh last week. The over/under is just 37.5 for this game, but the Jags defense is still highly capable of making it a long day for a rookie quarterback.

This is a dangerous line early in the week with Joe Flacco's status still up in the air. Oakland has struggled to get to the passer this season, but that's not as much of a concern if Lamar Jackson starts under center, having attempted only 19 points on Sunday vs. Cincinnati. Baltimore would have a tough time building a huge lead in a run-heavy game.

Well, it looks like it's the Jameis Winston show again after he impressed in relief of Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. Winston is playing for his job in 2019, and the 49ers defense hasn't exactly been able to make life miserable for quarterbacks, ranking in the bottom half of the league in sack rate and allowing 26.6 points per game overall. Nick Mullens also came back down to earth in his last game (27-23 loss vs. Giants). The 49ers are coming off a bye but have yet to win on the road, now at 0-5.

This line has been all over the map in Vegas, between 4.5 and 6.0 points. The Giants have won two straight, while Philly has lost a pair, including a 48-7 shelling at New Orleans last week. New York already lost 34-13 at home to Philly but has finished within a touchdown in all but two of its games this year and faces an especially banged-up Eagles squad now.

Is this the end for Marvin Lewis? The Bengals have lost four of five and feature one of the league's worth defenses. Still without A.J. Green, they weren't able to keep up with a Joe Flacco-less Baltimore offense last week and play a Browns team that is 0-4 on the road but is coming off a bye and has lost by only a field goal in three of those games.

Sam Darnold's status is up in the air, but it might not matter. The Patriots are 15-10-1 after a bye since 2003, according to TeamRankings.com, and Tom Brady certainly has motivation after a 34-10 loss at Tennessee before the bye.

This is a huge game for the NFC Wild-Card picture. Carolina could be in more dire need after consecutive losses, but the Panthers are 5-0 at home this year and 4-1 against the spread.

Don't look now, but the Colts are playing great football. They've won four straight, winning by at least two touchdowns in three of those games. Miami is coming off a bye but is just 1-4 on the road this season and has lost by at least 10 points in all of its last four road games. The injuries to the Dolphins' wideouts are looking like too much to overcome.

Arizona took a tough loss vs. Oakland last week, and L.A. did the same vs. Denver. Arizona continues to struggle with turnovers due in large part to poor offensive line play, but the Cardinals could make Philip Rivers' life tough with the second-best sack rate in the league, led by another quietly great year from Chandler Jones.

The Steelers have won six straight but are a different team on the road, as they showed with a late 20-16 struggle at Jacksonville last week. The Steelers are 4-0-1 on the road but haven't won a road game by more than a touchdown, and there aren't many tougher places to play than Denver. The Broncos haven't lost a home game by more than four points this year.

Green Bay is on life support after losing at Seattle last week, while Minnesota has also lost two of three. These teams played to a 29-29 tie in Week 2, and Green Bay has a lot of injuries in its secondary. Still, the Pack have Aaron Jones back for this contest and are averaging 6.2 yards per play, seventh best in football. The Packers offense should be able to keep this divisional rivalry close.

This game is off the board at many books as we wait for Marcus Mariota's status after leaving last week's game. Assuming he plays, the Jekyll and Hyde Titans are highly capable of keeping this one close. Houston has won seven straight games but won by a field goal or less in five of those contests and lost at Tennessee 20-17 in Week 2. Even with their hot streak, the Texans are just 4-6 against the spread.