NFL player prop bets for Week 6 and beyond

Odds: Over 11.5 (-120) | Under 11.5 (-120)

Although he’s known for his mobility, Winston finished the 2017 season with only five games of 12-or-more rush yards. In those games, he averaged 18.6 rush yards. With how banged up the Falcons secondary is, Winston shouldn’t need to call his number too often, as his targets downfield are expected to be wide open. However, that rush total is so low, and with Winston about to start his first game of the season, he may have some trouble on timing his progressions, which would require a quarterback scamper.

The bet: OVER

Over 305 | Under 305

Through their first four games, the Buccaneers have allowed an average of 358 pass yards per game. Matt Ryan has averaged 320 per contest through his first five. Granted, Tampa Bay is coming off its bye week, but this matchup has all the makings of an up-and-down, high-octane NFL shootout with the point total north of 55.

The bet: OVER

Odds: T.J. -140 | J.J. (EVEN)

Two of the three leaders in sacks meet this Sunday when Geno Atkins’ Bengals host T.J. Watt’s Steelers. Atkins, Watt and Watt’s older brother, J.J., are currently in a three-way tie for the NFL lead in sacks with six each. This prop bet is actually an update to one set back in Week 2. At the time, T.J. was a heavy favorite at -240 after he picked up three sacks Week 1 against the Browns. The Texans pass rush is the only thing saving their defense from total annihilation, while the Steelers defense continues to search for consistency. I’m going to lean on the elder statesman in this case.

The bet:  J.J.

Odds: Rams +185 | Chiefs -280

Just for argument sake, let’s say the Chiefs upset the Patriots and the Rams handle the Broncos at Mile High this weekend. Both undefeated, here are there next three opponents:

LAR: At 49ers, Packers and At Saints.

KC: Bengals, Broncos and At Browns

While the Seahawks put a scare into the Rams last weekend, Los Angeles’ defense is better suited to adjust and keep a potential undefeated campaign alive. In some cases, Patrick Mahomes has needed to pull rabbits out of a hat and break NFL records for the Chiefs to win. Both offenses are well-equipped to light up the scoreboard and hit point total prop OVERS week in and week out, but you need some defense and that’s why I – along with oddsmakers – believe Kansas City will be the first to fall.

The bet: Chiefs

Odds: Over 39.5 (-120) | Under 39.5 (-120)

It would appear Andrew Luck’s surgically repaired shoulder is in good working order. He’s attempted an average of 49 pass attempts through his first five games. This is what happens when an NFL team has no rush attack, and defense puts the offense in a gaping hole. With the way the Jets looked against Denver last week, there’s a good chance Sam Darnold’s offense could post similar results against Indy. That would require Luck to go to the air once more.

The bet: OVER

Odds: Yes +250 | No -400

Poor, poor Marshawn. Derek Carr’s Week 5 interception from the Chargers’ 1-yard line had to bring back some painful Super Bowl XLIX memories when Pete Carroll elected to have Russell Wilson pass instead of hand it off to D.J. Skittles (Note: Lynch LOVES Skittles candy.) This much is true: If the Raiders make it down to the Seahawks' 1-yard line and it’s first or second down, Lynch is a likely candidate to get a crack at the score. However, the Raiders' offense needs to get inside the 5 first, and that in itself becomes the problem.

The bet: NO

Odds: Mahomes (-120) | Brady (-120)

After tossing a record 13 touchdowns through the first three weeks of the season, Patrick Mahomes has come down to earth somewhat. He’s tossed only one touchdown with two interceptions over the past two weeks. Brady has thrown six touchdowns and four interceptions the past two games. As defensive coordinators get more tape on Mahomes, they still may not be able to completely stop the talented young trigger, but they could at least learn how to contain him. I think that’s what happens against the Patriots. It’s more likely that Brady and Mahomes push at two touchdowns apiece than it is for Mahomes to outscore Brady 3-to-1, etc.

 The bet: Brady

Odds: Over 10.5 (-120) | Under 10.5 (-120)

With Leo Fournette out indefinitely, the Jags signed veteran free agent Jamaal Charles. He hasn’t received a touch out of the backfield since Dec. 10, 2017 when he was then a member of the Broncos running back committee. T.J. Yeldon can’t carry the load solo. With such a low Over/Under, I believe Charles could post five carries for 20 yards against the Cowboys.

The bet: OVER

Odds: Yes +290 | No -480

With the way the Bengals played against Miami and the way the Steelers played against the Falcons last week, this much is true: Cincinnati at 4-1 isn’t as good and Pittsburgh at 2-2-1 isn’t as bad as their records indicate. If the Steelers pull off a minor upset of the Bengals this weekend and have Le’Veon Bell back for the second meeting, Pittsburgh is in great position to pick up another season sweep.

The bet: YES

Over 55 | Under 55

After averaging fewer than 39 rush yards per game through the first three weeks, Arizona’s David Johnson has posted back-to-back games of 55-or-more rush yards. This week he faces a Vikings defense that has underachieved to date. Mike Zimmer’s squad has allowed nearly 100 rush yards per game. Because Johnson is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry this season, he’d need 17 attempts to hit this over. I don’t see it. The Cardinals' growing pains are playing out in living color, and Johnson won’t be able to carry the load this week.

The bet: UNDER

Odds: Yes -220 | No +155

The Titans have failed to score a touchdown in two of their past three games. Baltimore’s defense is stingy, and this matchup is made for kickers Ryan Succop and Justin Tucker. It’ll be a field-goal fest!

The bet: NO

Over 75 Yards | Under 75 Yards

Lost in the Baker Mayfield and Saquon Barkley madness has been Michel’s recent breakout the past two weeks. The rookie running back out of Georgia has rushed 43 times for 210 yards (4.9 yards per rush) with two touchdowns. The Chiefs allow the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and believe the Patriots want to ride this hot hand to open up Brady’s passing options as the season plays out.

The bet: OVER

Odds: Yes +160 | No -230

Mason Crosby missed four field goals and an extra point for the Packers against the Lions last week. As bad as his day was, NFL kicking is experiencing an accuracy epidemic. The extra point is no longer a given as it had been prior to increasing the distance, and field-goal attempts are being pushed right and left on a weekly basis. For as great as Crosby’s been during the Packers run throughout the better part of this decade, he’s an 80 percent field-goal kicker, which isn’t automatic compared to some of the all-time greats. The yips are real and if he earns three to four attempts Week 6 against the 49ers, chances are he misses one.

Deshaun Watson has targeted Coutee 22 times, twice inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, over the past two weeks. Top target DeAndre Hopkins has seen 25 during the same two-week stretch. So Watson is trusting Coutee to make some plays.

The pick: YES

Over 4 | Under 4

Granted, the Saints are one of the best at covering and shutting down opposing tight ends this season. However, for Reed to see only two targets against New Orleans in a game where Washington played from behind most of the night is very odd. The veteran tight end had averaged better than six Alex Smith targets per game before last week. They’ll right that wrong against the Panthers this week.

The pick: OVER