NFL player prop: Pat response

Despite being picked to finish last in the AFC North by most pundits, the Steelers have managed a 7-4 record and currently hold the first wild-card spot. But their surprising success didn’t prevent them from replacing offensive coordinator Matt Canada prior to last week’s game against the Bengals, and the team promptly outgained its opponent for the first time all season. With the 2-10 Cardinals next up, the biggest contributor to Pittsburgh’s improved yardage output gets our backing for top prop:

The bet: Over 34½ receiving yards for Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth (DraftKings)

A second-round selection out of Penn State in 2021, Freiermuth quickly became a fan favorite. His receptions always elicit a “Muuuth” from the Pittsburgh faithful, and he has averaged better than four of them over his 18 games played in the Steel City.

This clash with Arizona will be Freiermuth’s first home appearance since Week 2 because he missed five games with a hamstring injury and then the Steelers were on the road. He was specifically used to attack Cincinnati’s “two-high” looks a week ago, getting targeted on a full third of Kenny Pickett’s throws. As a result, Freiermuth finished with career-best totals for catches (9) and yards (120).

The Cardinals likewise deploy a pair of high safeties on a regular basis, and they’ve allowed the seventh-most yards per pass play. While they haven’t been as vulnerable to tight ends as last season — when they were the league’s worst at defending the position — Freiermuth draws another highly exploitable matchup.