NFL playoff bracket if the season ended today: Who is in and out heading into Week 15?

The Kansas City Chiefs are 13-1, but the team isn't playing like their record. Despite the 21-7 victory in Cleveland, the offense struggled again, and Patrick Mahomes exited the game prematurely due to an ankle injury.

This was a game Kansas City should have won by at least three touchdowns. They forced six takeaways but only created 14 points off those turnovers. Despite the scoreboard, the team's performance failed to inspire confidence as the offense continued to spin its tires.

After the 15th week of the 2024-25 NFL season, which teams in the AFC and NFC are still fighting for playoff positioning?

NFC Playoff Standings, Week 16

1. Detroit Lions (12-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
4. Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
5. Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (10-4)
7. Washington Commanders (9-5)

In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-6), Atlanta Falcons (7-7), Arizona Cardinals (7-7), and San Francisco 49ers (6-8).

The Rams and 49ers kicked off the week with an ugly Thursday Night Football game, which the Rams won. The Giants suffered a blowout home loss to the Ravens. The Commanders narrowly stopped a Saints comeback, stopping a game-winning two-point conversion at the final moment. The Cowboys easily defeated the Panthers, with Bryce Young throwing two interceptions. The Buccaneers dominated the Chargers, while the Cardinals flew past the Patriots.

The Lions were stamped by the Bills in a high-scoring matchup. The Eagles won the battle of Pennsylvania against the Steelers. On Sunday Night Football, the Packers secured a comfortable victory against the Seahawks. The Vikings decisively beat the Bears, improving their playoff their odds for the #1 seed. In a close contest, the Falcons narrowly defeated the Raiders, with Kirk Cousins continuing to struggle.

The NFC race is now very interesting. The Lions, Vikings, and Eagles are 12-2 and the race for the #1 seed is wide open. The Lions and Vikings will square off in Week 18, which could very well determine the top seed.

A look at the NFC playoff odds

According to Team Rankings, the Lions are still the strong favorites to secure the NFC's #1 seed with a 61.2% chance. The Eagles are behind them at 30.1%, while the Vikings (8.7%) still have a small glimmer of hope, but need to win out to have the best opportunity.

The Lions also remain the favorites in the NFC to win Super Bowl LIX at a whopping 27.4%. The Eagles are second with an 11.5% chance of winning it all. They're followed by the Packers at 5.5%, while the Vikings (4.7%), Buccaneers (2.8%), Commanders (1.0%), and Rams (0.6%) are right behind them.

AFC Playoff Standings, Week 16

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (11-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
4. Houston Texans (9-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
6. Denver Broncos (9-5)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)

In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (6-8), Miami Dolphins (6-8) and Cincinnati Bengals (6-8).

The Chiefs beat the Browns by two touchdowns, but they still struggled on offense. The Texans beat the Dolphins following a poor showing by Tua Tagovailoa. The Bengals easily beat the Titans, keeping their playoff hopes alive. The Jets narrowly beat the Jaguars in a contest between struggling AFC teams. The Ravens thoroughly dominated the Giants, with Lamar Jackson throwing 5 touchdowns and completing nearly all of his passes. The Broncos defeated the Colts, pretty much locking up a playoff spot, barring an epic collapse.

The Chargers were embarrassed at home by the Buccaneers. The Patriots fell to the Cardinals on the road. The Bills offense dominated the Lions as Josh Allen pretty much locked up the MVP. The Steelers were blown out by the Eagles, pretty much ending their hopes for the #1 seed. Desmond Ridder failed to get his revenge against the Falcons as the Raiders continued to freefall.

A look at the AFC playoff odds

According to Team Rankings, the Chiefs remain the favorites to secure the AFC's #1 seed, but their odds have decreased to 68.2%. The Bills are behind them at 31.0%, while the Steelers (0.8%) still have a small glimmer of hope, but need a lot of help.

The Bills remain the favorites in the AFC to win Super Bowl LIX at 18.7%. The Chiefs are second with an 11.7% chance to win it all. Kansas City is followed by the Ravens at 6.8%, while the Steelers (3.2%), Texans (2.4%), Broncos (1.4%), and Chargers (1.4%) fall in line behind them.

To be perfectly honest, this version of the Kansas City Chiefs is not capable of winning the Super Bowl. Their offense lacks a clear identity, the play-calling is subpar, the offensive line has been problematic, and Patrick Mahomes has been inconsistent, particularly when throwing downfield.

Andy Reid is one of the most accomplished coaches in football history, but he has been a liability in recent weeks. While I'm not an "establish the run" guy, the Chiefs need to be a more balanced offense, especially in the second half when leading. This would help protect Patrick Mahomes and make the offense less predictable.

Sunday was the perfect microcosm of these issues. On two straight drives in the second half, while up by 14 points, they repeatedly failed to manage the clock effectively. On the first drive, three consecutive incompletions and just 26 seconds of the clock ticked off. On the second drive, three consecutive incompletions and just 21 seconds of the clock ticked off. This sequence was unacceptable.

While the Chiefs are certainly capable of turning things around in the playoffs, that possibility seems increasingly less likely as the regular season goes on. If they continue to struggle on offense, they'll immediately lose in the playoffs, even with home-field advantage.