NFL playoffs: Is Matthew Stafford a better bet than his odds suggest?

The L.A. Rams shot caller is a 22-1 long shot at DK to record the most passing yards this postseason as he gears up for a big homecoming against the Detroit Lions on wild-card weekend, and he's receiving plenty of flak after getting a Pro Bowl nod over some of his contemporaries with more appealing stats.

However, after looking at how he played toward the end of the 2023 season, is there reason to believe he is a better bet than his odds entail?

Stafford's long odds are likely due to him ending the regular season 11th among starting QBs with 3965 passing yards. He also ended the 2023-24 campaign with his lowest completion percentage since 2014, finishing the season at 62.6% with 24 TDs and 11 INTs.

It should be remembered, however, that stat took a hit when the veteran QB missed one start with a thumb injury and then had a rusty return against the Seattle Seahawks. In the weeks since then, the Rams won six of seven games and Stafford threw for over 250 yards in five of six starts — and threw for over 300 yards in Weeks 16 and 17. 

The last time Stafford was in the NFL playoffs, he completed 98 passes for 1,188 yards over four games as he led the Rams to a Super Bowl victory. That same season — his first with the Rams — he completed 28 passes for 334 yards and three TDs in a 28-19 win against the Lions team that had just traded him for Jared Goff. And while two seasons have passed, Stafford returns to Ford Field to face a Detroit defense that ranked 27th in the league this season after allowing an average 247.4 yards in the air.

There's no denying that Stafford is coming into the NFL playoffs on a hot streak. Now, it's just a matter of whether that hot streak has prompted you to bet on him even at long odds, especially as he gets ready to play his old team on wild-card weekend.

The over/under for that game is 51.5 at DK, for those ready to bet on Stafford to log major yardage this weekend and beyond.