NFL Playoffs: Wiesguy's 2 Picks and a Prop for Chargers-Jaguars

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, January 14
8:15 PM
TIAA Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Spread: Chargers -2.5
Total: 47.5

This number is fascinating. These teams did meet during the season and Jacksonville went to L.A. and drubbed the Chargers, winning 38-10. It is just one data point, but interesting that with the Jags playing so well right now, and at home, they are still not even favored. 

Spread Pick: Jaguars +2.5

It will be very interesting to see if this number moves. You are basically picking the winner at its current number, given that most games don't close at less than a field goal. Sure we get some weird numbers with safety and missed extra points etc., but not often, usually when the number is in this range the winner covers. I like the Jags to win at home and the +2.5 just gives a little extra cushion on this side. Right now there is no question that Lawrence can hang with the best QBs in the league and they have a coach who has won a Super Bowl so their decision-making in close games is greatly improved. 

Total Pick: Over 47.5

Neither of these teams are elite offensively, or defensively. The quarterbacks are good though and I expect both teams will move the ball. Scoring will be dependent on Red Zone efficiency and both teams have versatile running backs that help them punch the ball in the end zone- when they are close. I really like both teams to do well early in the game when they are on script, and to create some big plays when they need them late. I like 27-24 in favor of Jacksonville. We might have to wait until the final possession though. 

Prop Pick: Evan Engram Over 4.5 Receptions

The veteran tight end is a much bigger part of the offense than he was earlier in the season when they beat up the Chargers. Jacksonville spreads the ball around and Engram will be a consistent outlet against pressure. He is a good pass catcher, but not the top option on the team so he is unlikely to be a focus of the game plan for the defense. Look for 6 receptions and probably a TD.